3 Under-the-Radar Daily Fantasy Basketball Plays for 11/10/16
We have plenty of NBA studs on tap tonight for daily fantasy purposes, but to fit more than one on your FanDuel team, you need to unearth some low-cost gems.
You'll also need to differentiate your lineups and roster some contrarian plays if you plan to take down some big tournaments. Keep in mind that you'll likely only need a few low-owned players in your lineup to go along with the chalk plays of the night. Find the best fits in the best spots for your roster construction to help set you apart from the pack.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer and a handful of other awesome tools to help give you an edge. Tonight we have a very short four game slate that will leave you with limited options.
Consider these three under-the-radar players for your tournament rosters.
Darren Collison, PG, Sacramento Kings
FanDuel Price: $6,300
Why He Might Go Overlooked:
Even with a bum ankle, Stephen Curry ($8,900) is the class at point guard tonight while Goran Dragic ($6,800) has a sweet matchup with Rajon Rondo and the Chicago Bulls. Darren Collison is priced aggressively and disappointed with only 17.2 FanDuel points on Tuesday in his return from suspension while being low-owned (6.36%).
Why You Should Consider Him:
This pick is heavily dependent on whether or not Collison has been announced as a starter for tonight’s game with the Los Angeles Lakers. If so, he will get the 2nd-worst team defending point guards, allowing 51.1 FanDuel points to the position. The Sacramento Kings are in a good position tonight as 5.5-point home favorites in the second-highest total over/under of the night, and it'll be a pace-up game for the Kings.
Last year, Collison averaged 29.6 FanDuel points in the 15 games he started. While Tuesday was a letdown, the 27.5 minutes he played off the bench were encouraging. Starter Ty Lawson played poorly by shooting 0-5 from the field with 2 assists, 2 rebounds in only 21 minutes, so Collison has a clear path to regaining his spot in the starting five. And based on his strong preseason stats, Collison may be able to reach 30 FanDuel points if he plays 30 minutes with the starting unit.
If we don’t have any more clarity on this situation before tip-off, an easy pivot for you is Emmanuel Mudiay ($5,900) for all the reasons I wrote here last week. Since then, he has topped 31 FanDuel points twice while playing 33 minutes at more in 3 of 4 games. He will likely be higher-owned than he has been, though, matching up with the Golden State Warriors, who allow 50.1 FanDuel points to point guards.
Arron Afflalo, SG, Sacramento Kings
FanDuel Price: $3,700
Why He Might Go Overlooked:
The Greek Freak, Giannis Antetokounmpo ($9,600), should be chalk tonight in a fantastic matchup with the New Orleans Pelicans -- with moderately priced Klay Thompson ($5,900) and Dwyane Wade ($6,700) also on the slate. Meanwhile, three Lakers shooting guards, Louis Williams ($4,900), Jordan Clarkson ($5,100) and Nick Young ($4,100) should eat up ownership in the lower-end of the marketplace.
Why You Should Be Consider Him:
Arron Afflalo, as a starter at near minimum salary, has to be considered for cap savings purposes if for no other reason tonight. His ceiling isn’t particularly high as the fourth option in Sacramento, but we do give him at least have a decent path to reach it in this cherry matchup.
First, the matchup itself. We already know this should be a high-scoring affair, and then we can add the Lakers sixth-most FanDuel points allowed at the position (44.3). Second, Afflalo has averaged 29.4 minutes per game as the starting shooting guard and will play those minutes against the third-fastest pace team thus far. Third, he has been efficient in his past two games, converting 10 of 14 field goal attempts, and he has reached at least 5.4 times value per $1,000 salary in three of his past five games.
We currently project Afflalo to be the second-best value of the night at shooting guard (behind Klay Thompson). Afflalo likely won’t win a GPP for you tonight, but his cap savings could let you roster someone who will. With late word that E'Twaun Moore is headed for a game-time decision, you can also look at Buddy Hield ($4,000), who would become the presumptive starter in New Orleans and would have a higher upside than Afflalo.
Jusuf Nurkic, C, Denver Nuggets
FanDuel Price: $5,700
Why He Might Go Overlooked:
Only needing to fill one center spot in lineups on FanDuel, DeMarcus Cousins ($9,500) should be chalk with a tantalizing matchup and price tag. Hassan Whiteside ($8,200) is cheaper with a tasty matchup, as well. Meanwhile, the Denver frontcourt situation has been tough to predict thus far, causing the pre-season hype for Jusuf Nurkic to die down.
Why You Should Consider Him:
In what is expected to be the highest-scoring matchup of night, the Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets rank fourth and fifth, respectively, in pace, so you’ll want as much exposure to this game as you can. Going with Nurkic can help you differentiate your lineups at the same time. With a six-game slate on Tuesday, Nurkic was owned in only 6.23% of lineups, but he disappointed with 19.9 FanDuel points. The recency bias of that letdown outing should help to counter the fewer options available on this four-game slate.
To win a GPP, though, we have to take a gamble or two, and Nurkic has as much upside as anyone at his salary tier. And as inconsistent as he seems, Nurkic has had the longest leash in Denver, playing the most minutes per game (25.6) with the highest usage rate (23.2%) of his frontcourt mates. In fact, he is tied for tops at center for percentage of games reaching four times per $1,000 of his current salary, giving you a solid floor with a high ceiling. Furthermore, Nurkic has a nice matchup as Golden State has allowed the sixth-most FanDuel points at center (53.23).
A fast-paced, high-scoring game with a good matchup at expected low ownership should make Nurkic a top target tonight.
