Re-Drafting the 2012 NBA Draft Using Advanced Analytics
What Happend
To recap, here are the top 10 picks of the 2012 NBA Draft, including each player's career measures in value over replacement player (VORP), nERD, win shares per 48 minutes, and total win shares.
| Pick | Team | Player | VORP | nERD | WS/48 | WS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Orleans | Anthony Davis | 13.8 | 14.9 | 0.205 | 37.7 |
| 2 | Charlotte | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | 0.8 | -2.8 | 0.087 | 9.6 |
| 3 | Washington | Bradley Beal | 3.3 | -6.9 | 0.080 | 13.4 |
| 4 | Cleveland | Dion Waiters | -1.5 | -24.2 | 0.034 | 5.8 |
| 5 | Sacramento | Thomas Robinson | -1.3 | -7.8 | 0.048 | 3.7 |
| 6 | Portland | Damian Lillard | 14.4 | 21.0 | 0.144 | 35.2 |
| 7 | Golden State | Harrison Barnes | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.098 | 17.7 |
| 8 | Toronto | Terrence Ross | 1.8 | -6.8 | 0.074 | 11.1 |
| 9 | Detroit | Andre Drummond | 6.0 | 22.0 | 0.156 | 29.4 |
| 10 | New Orleans | Austin Rivers | -2.4 | -19.2 | 0.024 | 2.9 |
The top pick in the 2012 draft was never in question. Davis was the easy choice for New Orleans after a dominant season at Kentucky. His selection as the first overall pick was a lock, unlike their second pick in the top 10, Austin Rivers.
After their trade of Chris Paul a few months earlier, the Pelicans (then the Hornets) were desperate for a young point guard. With the consensus top point guard, Damian Lillard, off the board, New Orleans reached a bit to select the former Duke Blue Devil.
After multiple attempts to move down in the draft, Charlotte settled on Davis' teammate, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist for the second pick. Their selection marked the first time in NBA history that a pair of teammates were selected first and second in the NBA Draft. In fact, Kentucky had six players taken overall in the 2012 draft, another record.
The rest of the top 10 provided no big surprises, as six of the remaining eight draft choices played for perennial powerhouse programs. Lillard from Weber State and Terrence Ross from Washington are the only exceptions.
At first glance, the top 10 does not look too bad. All 10 are still currently playing in the NBA, three (Davis, Lillard, and Andre Drummond) have made All-Star teams, and one (Harrison Barnes) has won a championship. Only Thomas Robinson has averaged fewer than 20 minutes per game in his career.
