Daily Fantasy NASCAR: Current Form, Track History, and Betting Odds for the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301
Before the NASCAR Cup Series takes a two-week break for the Olympics, it's time to get back to what matters.
We've spent most of the summer on tracks -- and track types -- with minimal playoff representation. There have been three road courses in the past nine races even though there's just one in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, there hasn't been a race on a short, flat track since April, and that track type pops up three times in the playoffs, including the final two races.
That draught finally ends on Sunday, and it's a big test for teams hoping to snag a win November in Phoenix.
The Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 is in New Hampshire, the fourth short, flat track on the schedule thus far. It's the final race at a track like this before Richmond, which is the second race of the playoffs.
If you want a measuring stick of whether your team can compete for a title, this is it.
It also means we should expect a different group of drivers to contend for the win than what we've seen recently. Certain teams get a little DGAFy on non-playoff tracks (lookin' at you, Joe Gibbs Racing) and have slid back of late. With the overlap between New Hampshire and Phoenix being as high as it is, we should expect everyone to take this week seriously.
That means we're going to have to dig back a bit deeper for our most relevant races this week. Doing so, though, should give us a good idea of who will be fast on Sunday.
The table below lists out all six races we've had thus far using the 750-horsepower package on non-dirt ovals. The short, flat tracks are Richmond, Martinsville, and Phoenix, and we'll want to prioritize those over Nashville, Dover, and Darlington.
As always, the data listed is each driver's average running position for the race rather than where they finished. A good example of why comes from Kevin Harvick ($11,300 on FanDuel) at Richmond. There, he cut a tire late and crashed, leading to a 24th-place finish. Before that, though, Harvick had largely run up front, as indicated by his seventh-place average running position. We should put more stock in his speed for most the race than where he happened to be on the final lap.
The other data listed is each driver's FanDuel salary, win odds at NASCAR odds, and starting position. The win odds are in fractional form, so Kyle Larson ($14,000) being listed at 3.7 means he's +370 to win.
|Martin Truex Jr.||$13,500||7||2||19||13||1||4||4||6||9||10||4|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr.||$6,000||130||29||6||20||23||18||19||12||21||27||17|
In this week's track preview, we talked about the value of jamming in a third stud in order to account for the length of the race. The presence of Joey Logano at a salary of just $10,800 makes that a lot easier.
Logano has been much better in the 750-horsepower package than the 550 package this year. His aggregate average running position in the three races on short, flat tracks (4.3) ranks second behind just Denny Hamlin ($13,000). Logano is starting 15th, which means he can actually scoop you some place-differential en route to the front. Logano makes a ton of sense as both a cash-game and tournament staple.
A sneakier mid-salaried option with an outside shot to win the race is Christopher Bell ($9,000). Bell was absolutely dominant on this track type in the Xfinity Series, notching 8 of his 16 career wins on short, flat tracks. Two of those came right here in New Hampshire.
He has shown plenty of spiciness in the Cup Series, as well, in his first year with Joe Gibbs Racing. Bell had a top-11 average running position in each of the first three races at short, flat tracks, and he cranked out a fourth-place finish in Richmond. Bell is starting ninth, so he won't net you place-differential points, but he's in the same mold as Kurt Busch ($9,500) and Tyler Reddick ($8,500) last week where he has massive appeal due to his finishing upside.
If you want to squeeze some place-differential out of your value plays, then Aric Almirola ($7,500) is your guy. Almirola will start 22nd but ranks 14th in my model's projected average running position. He's up there in part due to good course history but also due to quality marks at the short, flat tracks earlier in the year. Stewart-Haas Racing showed big speed the last time the Cup Series used the 750-horsepower package on an oval, and given how well this track suits Almirola's strengths, we shouldn't be surprised if the resurgence continues on Sunday.