Fantasy Baseball Mailbag: Thursday 5/26/16
We're starting a new little diddy here on numberFire to try to help you navigate the ever-changing landscape that is fantasy baseball. It's not easy to keep up with all of the day-to-day fluctuations, so it can help to have someone to bounce ideas off of. That's what our daily mailbag will look to do.
Feel free to shoot us any questions you may have throughout the day on Twitter, and then we'll try to answer as many as we can in the form of a post. If you prefer, you can also send an email to Jim.Sannes@FanDuel.com. These questions can be anything fantasy baseball related. That means daily fantasy baseball, season-long, dynasty, and everything else are all in play.
Obviously, we won't be able to get to all questions because there's a lot to cover. For additional questions, be sure to check out our new MLB DFS tools along with our daily and season-long projections, which should help out more times than not.
Now, enough of that. Let's dig into today's mailbag and see what's popping in the world of fantasy baseball.
@numberFire is it worth picking up Urias to drop somebody like Francisco Liriano, Joe Ross, Danny Valencia or someone of that ilk?
— Adam Faucheux (@Afaucheux70) May 26, 2016
Whew, Julio Urias is the truth. You want him on your rosters if you can find a spot for him. There are just a few concerns around him that may limit his fantasy viability, but let's focus on the fun side first.
In 41 innings at Triple-A prior to his promotion, Urias fanned 29.7% of the batters he faced while only walking 5.4%. To give you some context, the big-league averages for starters in those two departments are 20.3% and 8.0%, respectively. He's a dream-killing machine just waiting to be unleashed upon the world.
Now, for the bad. Urias has appeared in eight games so far this year, but he has never thrown more than 82 pitches. He didn't even hit 70 pitches in two of those outings, though one was in relief. It's hard to rack up big-time fantasy numbers when your pitch count is that low, and it would be completely understandable if the Los Angeles Dodgers didn't want to put wear on the arm of a guy who will still be a teenager until August.
The other side of this is that we don't know for how long Urias will be with the Dodgers. There hasn't been any extra info on Alex Wood's injury that resulted in Urias' promotion, meaning he could avoid a trip to the disabled list. They also have Hyun-jin Ryu nearing a return after tossing four shutout innings in a rehab start Wednesday. This could absolutely be a one-shot chance for Urias, even if he kills it.
If you have dead weight on your roster, I'd do it. However, Joe Ross has been improving his last few starts, and Francisco Liriano should eventually turn things around. As for Danny Valencia, his 37.4% hard-hit rate makes him a guy I'd want to keep. Urias is worth it if you have an obvious drop, but otherwise the concerns around pitch counts and long-term outlook may be too hefty.
Email submission from Austan Kas:
Would you trade Prince for Trumbo? I have Trumbo (always been a lil' crush of mine, bought low last year), and I find it hard to believe he keeps this up. However, I can't find much in his numbers, other than maybe his HR/FB rate, to suggest he's going to really hit a wall. Plus, he's in a heavenly spot in the middle of that lineup. I think I gotta keep rolling with him, right?
First, dynasty questions are dope. Feel free to send those in any time. Second, this plays well into yesterday's discussion on Prince Fielder's season-long struggles. Considering Russell Martin double donged after we talked about how bad he had been, maybe Prince is next! Still, I'd be looking to hang onto Mark Trumbo for the time being.
Austan basically nailed it in why we want to keep Trumbo: his situation is absolute perfection. He's in one of the best parks -- for both runs and home runs -- in the entire league, and he's in the middle of one of the league's best offenses. When you've got a 37.4% hard-hit rate and 42.3% fly-hit rate in a park like that, you're going to put up some silly numbers, and that should basically be the expectation for Trumbo the rest of this year.
Trumbo is superior to Fielder in every significant rate stat except for strikeout rate, he's in a better park, and his offense is better. So, Austan, you're completely correct in your assessment of that specific situation.
This would be a different story if you had a dynasty team that didn't figure to contend this year (I'm assuming this isn't Austan and that he's completely dusting the competition right now). Trumbo only signed a one-year deal with the Baltimore Orioles over the offseason, meaning he could see Camden Yards leave his grips at the end of the year.
Trumbo has obviously played well enough to earn a new deal, but the Orioles already have Chris Davis' frightening contract on the books, and they'll eventually need to stage coups on several wealthy monarchies to pay Manny Machado. Does that sound like a team that will be willing to spend up on Trumbo, especially with what he might be able to earn in free agency? It seems unlikely.
All of that leads to Trumbo's being a quality trade chip if you're not going to contend this year. You certainly shouldn't just take any offer to unload him as he'll still have some forward-looking value, but it likely won't be what it has been thus far in 2016.
Want to have your questions answered in our mailbox? Submit your questions by tweeting @numberFire, or send an email to Jim.Sannes@FanDuel.com.