MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Thursday 6/6/13
We know that people play all sorts of fantasy platforms, not just from from our friends at StarStreet but on other platforms such as FanDuel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud as well. So once again, we have four optimized rosters, all for you, the numberFire reader. One is for free here; the others can be found in our Premium section.
As always, the full tables for today's action are available at our Daily Fantasy Projections page. Make sure to check it out to see where the best values are for your team.
Our baseball projections are updated throughout the day, so make sure to come back to double-check your optimized rosters for any last-minute lineup changes. Since most action happens later in the day, we will be ignoring the early games (if there are any) and focusing solely on the late contests. That way, you can use and tinker with our optimized rosters throughout the day.
StarStreet Optimized Roster
Fan Duel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud Optimized Rosters
For the optimal rosters for the other main players, be sure to check out our brand new Daily Fantasy Optimized Rosters for our Premium members. We know that you're killing it with our picks; maybe now you'll help us continue to help you win each night, every night.
Access to the optimal rosters is immediate, and you'll have it constantly updated for the latest injury news and updates from around the league. The best news of all? For new subscribers, you can use the promo code WELCOME and get it 50% off what was already the reduced price. Think of the savings!
The Three Top Pitchers
Shelby Miller - Here at numberFire, we're big fan of pitchers who make guys miss. They don't have to rely on variable defense, they don't get themselves in tough situations that they have to work out of, they aren't unsustainable. They just make guys miss. Shelby Miller is one of those guys. His 26.5 percent strikeout rate is exceptional, and even against a Diamondbacks team that strikes out a little less than average, he's a play with very low variability. If there are are only two late game pitchers with more than 4.64 projected K's, you'll want one. Miller's got the most with 6.21, but the other one...
Gio Gonzalez - ... isn't half bad himself. Gio's 5.25 projected K's is the second-most among late-game pitchers tonight (third-most overall, but our optimized rosters ignore early games like Scherzer against Tampa). That's not exactly surprising given his 22.3 percent strikeout rate this season, which is actually his lowest since 2010. Maybe the Nationals aren't providing any run support, leading to his 3-3 record, but we still give him 0.38 projected wins against a Mets team that ranks fourth-to-last in OBP (.295) and third-highest in strikeout rate (22.9 percent).
Wily Peralta - Both Miller and Gio are going to be high-priced tonight; you know that going in. For formats with multiple pitchers such as StarStreet or Fantasy Feud, it's generally not a bad idea to select a low-cost, high-upside variable pitcher as your second option. That's where Peralta comes in. The Phillies may have Domonic Brown's magic potion, but all things considered, they still hold a below-average .307 OBP, poor 7.4 percent walk rate, and league-average strikeout and homerun rates. Peralta, meanwhile, has gotten a bit unlucky with his .342 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). We expect that number to drop towards the league average as the season progresses.
Top High-Priced Hitters
Mark Teixeira - Most of the time, it's teammate Robinson Cano that dominates our optimized rosters (and to be fair, he is on a few tonight). But in his six games since returning from the DL, Tex hasn't looked all that bad, especially with two homeruns in his past three games. Since there's such a small sample size to go with from Tex tonight, we're basing our optimistic projections entirely off his past play (like his 5.2 percent career homerun rate) and his opposing pitcher (especially Harang's 4.2 percent season homerun rate).
Dexter Fowler - We do love our Rockies; there's no denying that. We even love one that wasn't one of the three we placed on the NL All-Star Team yesterday. We have Fowler as a top five batter across most formats tonight thanks to 0.91 projected runs scored (fourth-most), 0.88 projected RBIs (fifth-most), and a .298 projected average (it's up there). Fowler may hold 0.96 projected strikeouts as well, but it could be worse: Padres starter Andrew Cashner only holds a below-average 18.0 percent strikeout rate this season.
Mid-Range Cost-Effective Hitters
Chris Denorfia - We have Chris Denorfia as a top five potential guy across most formats. This is not a joke. This is real life. While we'll be somewhat concerned about his total potential at-bats up until San Diego's lineups are submitted (since he switches positions so often), there's no denying his hitting ability so far this season. Sustainable .350 OBP? Check. Low 15.8 percent strikeout rate? Check. .342 BABIP, which isn't too far above his .322 career average? Check. Facing a starter with a low 15.5 percent strikeout rate and an average BABIP? Check and check. There is some excellent value with Denorfia, as long as you double-check he's in the lineup before gametime.
A.J. Pierzynski - Jon Lester isn't a half bad pitcher. His 6-2 record could tell you that. But did you know that his strikeout rate (19.9 percent), line drive rate (20 percent), and walk rate (7.1 percent) are all within one percent of the league average? The only think propping Lester up right now is his 1.5 percent homerun rate and a .276 BABIP, both of which would be the best marks of his career and thus likely to regress towards the mean. That's just fine for Pierzynski, who should be able to attack Lester with a low strikeout rate and a .321 BABIP of his own.