MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Monday 5/13/13
We know that people play all sorts of fantasy platforms, not just from from our friends at StarStreet but on other platforms such as FanDuel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud as well. So once again, we have four optimized rosters, all for you, the numberFire reader. One is for free here; the others can be found in our Premium section.
As always, the full tables for today's action are available at our Daily Fantasy Projections page. Make sure to check it out to see where the best values are for your team.
Our baseball projections are updated throughout the day, so make sure to come back to double-check your optimized rosters for any last-minute lineup changes. Since most action happens later in the day, we will be ignoring the early games (if there are any) and focusing solely on the late contests. That way, you can use and tinker with our optimized rosters throughout the day.
StarStreet Optimized Roster
Fan Duel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud Optimized Rosters
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The Three Top Pitchers
Anibal Sanchez - Must... feed... on... Astros.... Sanchez's record may be 3-3, but his 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings, 2.2 walks per nine innings, one homerun allowed in 45.2 innings pitched, and 1.97 ERA are much more indicative of a guy making a run at a Cy Young. Normally, this is where I'd talk about regression to the mean, but with Houston's league-leading 381 strikeouts this season (Atlanta is the only other team with more than 317), I'm good thinking Sanchez will continue his hot ways.
Hector Santiago - Usually, I'm not one to enthusiastically recommend White Sox players. The team's .280 OBP not only renders most of their hitters useless, but it limits the win potential of their starting pitchers as well. However, when that starting pitcher has a 24.7 percent career strikeout percentage, 6.7 percent walk rate this season (11.2 percent career), and is facing a Minnesota team that is league-average in both OBP and strikeouts, I'll consider him. Santiago's low cost make him an even better choice in fantasy platforms where multiple pitchers are selected.
Lance Lynn - The New York Mets certainly don't have much of an offense this season; their 24th-ranked .304 OBP will speak to that quite nicely. Lance Lynn, meanwhile, has a 9.8 strikeouts per nine rate that seems fairly secure in reference to his 9.5 SO/9 career rate. His 1.047 WHIP is a substantial upgrade over last season as well. I'm not too surprised he's tapped for 0.43 projected wins and only 0.26 projected losses today.
Top High-Priced Hitters
Ryan Braun - Come on, it's A.J. Burnett. Do you really believe that his 12.1 strikeouts per nine will last, especially in the face of 8.3 SO/9 career rate (a number he hasn't even reached since 2009)? I don't, and he's due for a regression right quick. Braun, meanwhile, was working on a 12-game hitting streak before it was snapped yesterday against the Reds. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him back on the horse today.
Troy Tulowitzki - Unlike Burnett, Travis Wood's 6.6 strikeouts per nine actually seems sustainable. His absolutely absurdly low .202 BABIP (batting average on balls in play), however, is not. Wood's 0.928 WHIP should regress to the mean here shortly, so don't expect Tulowitzki to be facing a Cy Young-caliber pitcher tonight. It should be normal going for the shortstop with the .415 OBP and a good chance to stop his mini-slump that has lowered his cost (he's reached three times in his past 14 PA).
Mid-Range Cost-Effective Hitters
Brian McCann - Well, that didn't take long. In five games since returning from injury, McCann holds a .381 OBP, seven RBIs, and two homeruns. His current 9.5 percent homerun rate might not be sustainable, but his 25 percent line drive rate (of balls in play) and his low 9.5 percent strikeout rate in five games indicates he's seeing the ball just as well as ever. Wade Miley may be a decent pitcher, but you're not going to get many more days with this excellent catcher's cost this low.
Josh Willingham - I wouldn't be surprised if Santiago struck out Willingham at least once; the Twins outfielder's 0.97 projected K's ranks in the top ten among all outfielders. But then again, I wouldn't be surprised if Willingham went yard either; his 0.31 projected homeruns is the most among all outfielders. With a low-cost guy, you're looking for upside, and the good outweighs the bad in Willingham's case, especially with Santiago's career rate of allowing homeruns on 2.8 percent of opponent plate appearances.