MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Wednesday 5/1/13
We've been giving you basketball Daily Fantasy help all season, but with only two or three playoff games a day (if we're lucky), that season's just about done. We do love our basketball, but now, it's Baseball Time. And that means one thing: Baseball Optimized Rosters!
Our baseball projections are updated throughout the day, so make sure to come back to double-check your optimized rosters for any last-minute lineup changes. Since most action happens later in the day, we will be ignoring the early games (if there are any) and focusing solely on the late contests. That way, you can use and tinker with our optimized rosters throughout the day.
We know that people play all sorts of fantasy platforms, not just from from our friends at StarStreet but on other platforms such as FanDuel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud as well. So once again, we have four optimized rosters, all for you, the numberFire reader. One is for free here; the others can be found in our Premium section.
As always, the full tables for today's action are available at our Daily Fantasy Projections page. Make sure to check it out to see where the best values are for your team.
StarStreet Optimized Roster
Fan Duel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud Optimized Rosters
For the optimal rosters for the other main players, be sure to check out our brand new Daily Fantasy Optimized Rosters for our Premium members. We know that you're killing it with our picks; maybe now you'll help us continue to help you win each night, every night.
Access to the optimal rosters is immediate, and you'll have it constantly updated for the latest injury news and updates from around the league. The best news of all? For new subscribers, you can use the promo code WELCOME and get it 50% off what was already the reduced price. Think of the savings!
The Three Top Pitchers
David Phelps - He holds the most expected fantasy points for a pitcher in most formats, yet he's mid-priced almost across the board since he's not one of the well-known Yankees starters. This one's a piece of cake. Facing the Astros, Phelps holds the highest projected wins (0.52) of any starter going tonight. His insanely high 29.0 percent strikeout rate this season doesn't hurt his fantasy value either - his 5.75 projected K's are the most of any pitcher tonight, barely beating out Cliff Lee. He's the guy you want.
Josh Beckett - Beckett may be 0-3, but his 19.2 percent K rate and his 6.2 percent BB rate show he's pitching right in line with expectations, just getting unlucky. A 6.2 percent home run rate certainly doesn't help, but that number is unsustainable, even against a Rockies team with the second-most homeruns in the majors. All his current numbers have done is drive down his cost, but that's why we look for inefficiencies. Go with the stats - the wins will come in time, perhaps tonight.
Hiram Burgos - Looking for a cheap but serviceable pitcher? Brewers rookie Hiram Burgos is your man. Through only two starts this season, Burgos may not miss many bats (only a 9.1 percent strikeout rate), but he also won't put too many guys on base without a fight (4.6 percent walk rate). The main key is that opposing teams haven't been able to hit Burgos hard - only 11 percent of balls in play against him have been line drives. Considering the Pirates only hold the 19th-best OBP in the majors at .312, I'm not too concerned about his matchup tonight, either.
Top High-Priced Hitters
Robinson Cano - Erik Bedard has allowed 11.0 hits per nine, 4.8 walks per nine, 61 percent of his allowed hits have gone for extra-bases, and 22.7 percent of the total fly balls he has allowed have gone for home runs. Honestly, I don't even care if those are from a small sample size (4 starts) or unsustainable - cut those numbers by 1/3 and I'm still all about it. Tonight should be a feast for Cano against that Astros pitching.
Buster Posey - It's not too often that a high-priced catcher gets me extremely riled up for his potential. Buster Posey tonight against Brandon McCarthy is one of them. McCarthy's 13.6 percent strikeout rate is about in line with expectations, but his 3.0 percent walk rate is lower than expected. That's not good, because if that number regresses to the mean, it only means an increase to his current insanely high 1.771 WHIP due to his 14.1 hits per nine allowed. Given Posey's recently-snapped 10 game hitting streak, starting a new one shouldn't be a problem tonight.
Mid-Range Cost-Effective Hitters
Everth Cabrera - I don't exactly like to trust Padres hitters, but feasting on Cubs pitching worked decently for me yesterday (Chase Headley: 2-6, 2B, 2K). Today, though, it's a lower-priced option that I'm going for. Shortstops are tough to predict fantasy relevancy for, but I'll take the guy who has gone 4-8 with 4 R already in this Cubs series. I don't see Scott Feldman and his 1.645 WHIP as a departure from the, umm, "pitching" the Padres have faced already in this series.
Lance Berkman - Chris Sale is a good pitcher whose numbers should return to the mean, but there is no reason for Berkman to be as low-cost across the board throughout multiple platforms. Berkman may not have re-discovered his home run form yet in Texas, but his batting eye is just as good as ever. His strikeout rate is his lowest since 2005 at 14.6 percent, while his walk rate is currently his highest ever at 19.1 percent. And that just means more runs opportunities in this strong Rangers lineup.