4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Stacks for 7/6/15
Each day here on numberFire, we'll be providing you with four potential offenses to stack in your daily fantasy lineups. These are the offenses that provide huge run potential on that given day based on matchups and other factors.
After reading through these suggestions, make sure to check out our daily projections. These can either let you know which players to include in each stack, or which guy best complements said stack.
Another great tool is our custom optimal lineups, which are available for premium subscribers. Within the tool, we've added the option to stack teams -- you choose the team you want to stack, show how many players you want to use within the stack, and the tool will create a lineup based on this that you can then customize.
Now, let's get to the stacks. Here are the teams you should be targeting in daily fantasy baseball today.
Los Angeles Dodgers
First of all, let me make clear: this is the grossest slate for stacks in the history of all things beautiful. There was one game that, at time of this writing, had an over/under of 8 or higher. The one exception -- the shining beacon of hope in a world of darkness -- is the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Sean O'Sullivan boasts a 5.14 xFIP and gets lit like a firecracker by lefties. Allow me to illustrate with the chart below.
Player A is the average left-handed batter against O'Sullivan this year (126 plate appearances). Player B is Barry Bonds when he won the N.L. MVP award in 2003. They are a 26.9 percent walk rate from being one of the greatest sluggers of all time. Savages.
Needless to say, you should have mild exposure to Joc Pederson tonight. By "mild," I mean every cash game roster that doesn't include Joc should be subject to corporal punishment. If you're looking for options with lower ownership, both Yasmani Grandal and Andre Ethier will take their swings from the left side tonight and have crushed righties. Justin Turner should be in play, too, as he has exhibited reverse splits in 2015.
Even with all of the injuries, these bad boys can still post some runs every now and then. They don't have the same run potential as the Dodgers, but they could still post some positive numbers against Anthony Desclafani.
Desclafani got out to a nice start this year, but his output has slipped a bit since then. Over his past 12 starts, DeSclafani has a 4.67 ERA and a 4.50 xFIP. The Nats rank 14th in the league in wOBA against right-handers, which isn't ideal, but it's enough to warrant a stack on a short slate.
Although the platoon slash splits are fairly even for lefties and righties against DeSclafani, lefties are the better play tonight. They have a higher fly-ball rate, line-drive percentage and walk rate with a lower strikeout rate. That means -- assuming he's in the lineup -- Clint Robinson is a decent option who should have much lower ownership than Bryce Harper.
I'd prefer to roll this one out exclusively in tournaments because Phil Hughes really isn't as bad as his numbers have looked this year. The reason I'm cool with it in tourneys, though, is that Hughes has a crazy high fly-ball rate, and the O's rank sixth in the league in fly-ball rate against righties.
Of the 98 qualified pitchers this season, only two have a lower ground-ball rate than Hughes (Hector Santiago and Dan Haren). He has coupled that with the sixth-highest line-drive percentage against to result in a hard-hit rate of 31.1. Hughes' walk rate keeps him among the ranks of quality starting pitchers, but he does provide that long-ball potential we are looking for in a stack.
Because we're focusing on this as a tourney stack, there are several options who provide a complement to Hughes' fly-ball tendencies. Obviously there's Chris Davis, but Chris Parmelee, Matt Wieters and Steve Pearce all have fly-ball percentages greater than 40.0 percent against right-handed pitchers. Those are the guys you can snag with low ownership tonight in search of a dong.
Kyle Lohse has made one start this year in which he didn't allow multiple runs. That would be against the New York Mets (shocker!) back on May 15th. Outside of that, it has been a slew of crooked numbers, long balls and sadness. No bueno.
On most other slates, I wouldn't recommend stacking a team ranking 20th in the league in wOBA against righties, even if they were facing Lohse. My fear here is that people will see Lohse's ERA and hop on the Braves, negating any possible ownership advantage. This one is certainly a risk with how the Braves have fared this year, but there aren't a ton of other avenues to exploit.
The one thing that the Braves do well is avoid the strikeout. They have the third-lowest strikeout rate in the league against right handers, making them an enticing option in cash games as they should rack up the balls in play. He's far from a stud, but A.J. Pierzynski does have a .162 isolated slugging against right-handers. And who caught Lohse in his Major League debut all the way back on June 22nd, 2001? That would be Mr. Pierzynski. Not that this should affect your DFS decisions; it just illustrates that they're both old as all get-up.