MLB

# MLB Power Rankings Update: Too Early Wildcard Picture

The Red Sox keep flirting with the playoffs as we approach the All-Star break; does our math give them a shot?

Here at numberFire, we like math. We're not about subjectivity. So when we calculate our power rankings, it's not based on what our eyes are telling us or what our feelings say. It's based on straight up math.

For baseball, we use our nERD metric to show how good a team actually is performing. nERD, for those of you who are unaware, tells us how many runs a team should win by against a league-average opponent on a neutral field. A nERD of 1.00, for instance, means that team would be an ordinary one by a run. If that team was facing a squad with a nERD of -0.5, we'd expect them to win by 1.5 runs.

Now that we have an explanation of how our math works, take a look at how things are shaping up around Major League Baseball, sorted by nERD.

You can view the comprehensive standings below. Some quick observations and the wildcard races are broken down in the next slides.

RankTeamPlayoffsChampsDivisionnERD
#1Los Angeles Dodgers90.20%20.70%76.70%1.17
#2Houston Astros80.80%7.60%64.80%0.93
#3Oakland Athletics11.40%1.10%3.40%0.92
#4Toronto Blue Jays52.50%6.50%27.00%0.92
#5St. Louis Cardinals98.30%14.20%80.60%0.7
#6San Francisco Giants51.80%4.40%20.00%0.51
#7Kansas City Royals72.00%6.10%61.40%0.43
#8New York Yankees50.00%3.50%26.40%0.42
#9Baltimore Orioles49.90%4.90%25.60%0.41
#10Chicago Cubs48.40%2.10%4.00%0.36
#11Pittsburgh Pirates79.20%5.60%15.10%0.26
#12Tampa Bay Rays40.80%3.80%19.10%0.26
#13Cleveland Indians17.60%1.40%10.60%0.23
#14Cincinnati Reds4.70%0.20%0.30%0.21
#15Washington Nationals78.80%8.40%74.90%0.18
#16Detroit Tigers22.60%2.10%14.20%0.16
#17Los Angeles Angels42.20%3.20%20.00%0.06
#18New York Mets21.40%0.90%14.60%-0.15
#19Seattle Mariners7.90%0.70%2.50%-0.28
#20Texas Rangers22.80%1.00%9.20%-0.32
#21Boston Red Sox6.50%0.20%2.00%-0.44
#22Arizona Diamondbacks4.70%0.10%1.50%-0.47
#23Miami Marlins2.70%0.10%2.00%-0.51