3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 8/1/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Jake Burger To Hit a Home Run (+400)
The Chicago White Sox have a favorable matchup against Andrew Heaney, putting their sluggers in a favorable spot.
Heaney has not been good this season versus right-handed hitters, and with the power some of the White Sox hitters' have, we could see the ball flying tonight. To be specific, Heaney allows a .473 SLG, .340 wOBA, 1.88 HR/9, 4.54 xFIP, 46.1% fly-ball rate, and 33.1% hard-contact rate versus righties this season.
That is a rough set of numbers to have when the opposing lineup has a ton of power. That power starts with Jake Burger, who is on fire at the plate with four home runs in his last five games. On the season, Burger comes in with a 151 wRC+, .390 wOBA, .380 ISO, 51.9% fly-ball rate, and 48.1% hard-contact rate versus left-handers.
The power is undeniable for Burger, who sits in the 91st percentile or higher this season in average exit velocity, max exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xSLG, and barrel rate, according to BaseballSavant. All of this puts Burger in an elite matchup, so I'll look to add Burger To Record an RBI (+175), too.
Zach Eflin Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+128)
The New York Yankees' lineup is bad right now, presenting a great opportunity for opposing pitchers.
With the Yankees' current roster, they have a 23.1% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the 12th-worst in the league. They also have a 99 wRC+ (21st) and a .313 wOBA (21st), making them a bottom-tier offense in this split. They are not the power-hitting team they once were, and we can target pitcher props against them.
Zach Eflin is on the mound for the Tampa Bay Rays tonight, and although he's had a few rough outings as of late, he's still in a great spot. Eflin comes in with a 25.2% strikeout rate, 10.9% swinging-strike rate, and 30.3% called-plus-swinging-strike (CSW) rate. Those are solid across the board and have led Eflin to hit the over on this 5.5 prop in six of his last 10 outings.
Ronald Acuna To Record 2+ Hits (+170)
This Ronald Acuna Jr. guy is pretty good at baseball.
I know, breaking news over here that Acuna is good, but sometimes it's best to keep things simple. That's the approach I'm taking with his prop tonight, so let's jump in.
Acuna To Record 2+ Hits has very solid plus money at +170, which is noticeably different than Acuna To Record 2+ Total Bases, which sits at -140. I want to shoot for the plus money given the matchup against Patrick Sandoval.
This season, Sandoval allows a .369 SLG, 4.24 xFIP, .300 BABIP, and 19.7% strikeout rate. Sandoval isn't a big-time threat on the mound for strikeouts and pitches to contact. This puts Acuna in a spot to put the ball in play and pick up two hits.
Acuna comes in with a 157 wRC+, .409 wOBA, .317 BABIP, 13.3% strikeout rate, and .250 ISO versus left-handed pitchers this season. Given the fact the Atlanta Braves have a 5.37 implied run total tonight, they are going to be getting runners on base and putting the ball in play.
