3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 7/26/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Cody Bellinger To Hit a Home Run (+340)
The Chicago Cubs have a solid 4.61 implied run total tonight and one of the best matchups on the slate.
Right from the jump, we have two great factors going in our favor tonight with the strong hitting weather and an awesome park factor. This game is at Guaranteed Rate Field, the home of the Chicago White Sox, which checks in as the fifth-best park for home runs this season.
Next, we see that the White Sox will have Lance Lynn on the mound, a pitcher we should be chomping at the bit to target for props. He comes in allowing a .653 SLG, .441 wOBA, 3.28 HR/9, 4.66 xFIP, 42.5% fly-ball rate, and 38.7% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters this season. Over 3.00 HR/9 is insane and puts several of the Cubs' hitters in a favorable spot.
We'll turn to the red-hot Cody Bellinger, who is rocking a 118 wRC+, .346 wOBA, .186 ISO, and 46.5% fly-ball rate versus right-handers this season. This is great across the board and puts Bellinger to continue his hot season at the plate. Of course, I'll look to add Bellinger To Record an RBI (+120), too.
Carlos Rodon Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+102)
When it comes to the pitching slate tonight, under 6.5 strikeouts for Carlos Rodon is my favorite spot.
Rodon started the season late due to a back injury and only has three starts under his belt this year, giving us a small sample size to look at. However, nothing about these first three starts is very encouraging, and he has a tougher matchup against the New York Mets tonight.
First off, Rodon has been under this 6.5 mark in all three starts and comes in with an extremely low 16.9% strikeout rate. Combine that with the fact he has a 13.8% walk rate, and his efficiency on the mound looks to be an issue. This is why he's only gone for 87, 88, and 69 pitches in his first three starts, while not getting past 5.1 innings pitched.
He's not striking out hitters and is walking them, and that is driving up his pitch count and causing him to be pulled early. Not to mention the fact the Mets come in with a 21.9% strikeout rate versus lefties, which is the 11th-lowest in the league.
There's nothing to suggest Rodon is going to be able to push past 6.5 strikeouts in a tougher matchup tonight.
Ozzie Albies To Record an RBI (+120)
With a slate-high 5.47 implied run total, the Atlanta Braves are a great team to target for some player props tonight.
Big shocker here, but the Braves have an elite offense. If they are expected to see plenty of runners cross the plate, we want to jump on some RBI props that offer some value. That leads us to Ozzie Albies, who has a favorable matchup against Boston Red Sox starter Brayan Bello. Simply put, Albies is a better hitter than Bello is a pitcher.
For specifics, Bello is struggling against lefties this year with a .354 wOBA, .494 SLG, 5.02 xFIP, 1.66 HR/9, and 36.1% fly-ball rate.
Albies will be hitting in the heart of the Braves lineup and will have ample opportunities to drive in a run tonight. He comes in with a 96 wRC+, .317 wOBA, .231 ISO, 44.7% fly-ball rate, and 34.6% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season.
