3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 7/24/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Joey Votto To Hit a Home Run (+370)
The Cincinnati Reds have a 4.39 implied run total tonight and that might not be higher enough considering their powerful offense.
With power up and down their lineup, the Reds are capable of posting runs in a hurry versus any pitcher. We might see that on full display tonight versus Colin Rea, a pitcher we don't need to fear on the mound.
This season, Rea is allowing a .503 SLG, .357 wOBA, 5.39 xFIP, 2.13 HR/9, 44.7% fly-ball rate, and 34.4% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters. With the Brewers' home park being the seventh-best in the league for home runs, this is a great matchup to jump on a home run prop.
That brings us to the veteran, Joey Votto, who comes in with 121 wRC+, .362 wOBA, .364 ISO, 50.0% fly-ball rate, and 37.0% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. Votto had the day off yesterday, so he should be good to return to the lineup yesterday in an elite spot. As usual, I'll also look to add Votto To Record an RBI (+135).
Matt McLain To Record 2+ Total Bases (+105)
From one Reds hitter to another.
As you can tell, I'm big on Cincinnati's offense tonight to post plenty of runs against Rea. This time, we're looking at one of the many exciting rookies from the Reds, Matt McLain. He's been hot at the dish over his five games, with three of them being multi-hit outings, and he will look to continue that tonight.
McLain comes in with a 125 wRC+, .368 wOBA, .200 ISO, 38.9% fly-ball rate, and 35.7% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. This is an elite hitting profile to have with the combination of contact and power, putting McLain in a spot to produce every single night.
For Rea, he comes in with a .363 SLG, 36.3% hard-contact rate, and 21.4% strikeout rate versus right-handed hitters this season. He isn't punching out hitters at the plate, and McLain should be able to put the ball in play and get on base tonight.
Michael Grove Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-116)
Let's turn to Michael Grove of the Los Angeles Dodgers and side with under 4.5 strikeouts tonight.
Grove has a modest 20.4% strikeout rate this season, which sits below the league-average strikeout rate of 22.8%. He's not a dominant pitcher on the mound and has finished under this 4.5 mark in eight of his 12 outings this season. We also see that Grove has only reached 90 total pitches twice this season.
If the Dodgers don't trust him to throw a ton of pitches and get deep into the game, he will have limited chances to rack up strikeouts.
When it comes to the matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays, it's not a great one to begin with. They come in with a 21.4% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the seventh-lowest in the league. This is not the spot we'll see Grove racking up strikeouts and it points us to under 4.5 punchouts tonight.
