3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 7/17/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Kerry Carpenter To Hit a Home Run (+450)
The Detroit Tigers have a 4.99 implied run total tonight and a matchup that could feature some power upside.
The Tigers will be taking on Jordan Lyles, who is struggling with the long ball this season and a great pitcher to target for some home runs. To this point in the season, Lyles has allowed a .524 SLG, .361 wOBA, 5.34 xFIP, 2.28 HR/9, 48.3% fly-ball rate, and 34.2% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters. He has allowed a total of 20 home runs this season, and 12 of them have come via lefties.
This brings us to Kerry Carpenter, who is swinging a good bat right now and comes in with a 134 wRC+, .363 wOBA, .272 ISO, 41.1% fly-ball rate, and 33.6% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. He might not be a household name among MLB players, but the young outfielder for the Tigers has some power in his swing.
As usual, I'll look to add Carpenter To Record an RBI (+105).
Wilmer Flores To Record 2+ Total Bases (-105)
With a 5.10 implied run total, the San Francisco Giants sit atop tonight's 10-game slate.
The Giants are streaking right now and head into Cincinnati, which is one of the best hitter's parks in the league. A game total of 9.5 is a good indication we are going to see some scoring tonight, and we want to capture that via some player props.
Brandon Williamson, a pitcher we can absolutely target tonight, will be on the mound for the Reds. He comes in allowing a .486 SLG, .345 wOBA, 5.31 xFIP, 1.91 HR/9, and 44.4% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters this season. Add in the fact he has a low 17.8% strikeout rate, and he isn't too much of a threat on the mound.
We turn to Wilmer Flores, who has a very solid 135 wRC+, .370 wOBA, .185 ISO, 17.2% strikeout rate, .352 BABIP, and 47.4% fly-ball rate versus southpaws this season.
This is a straightforward matchup for a consistent hitter in a hot offense.
Shane McClanahan Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-112)
Shane McClanahan is expected to make his return from the injured list tonight against the Texas Rangers.
McClanahan was placed on the IL prior to the All-Star Break, and this isn't the easiest landing spot for him against the league's highest-scoring offense. In the two starts prior to going on the injured list, McClanahan only went for 66 and 67 pitches due to the back tightness that forced him to go on the IL.
Considering those weren't full starts for McClanahan, we can look back at the three starts prior to that where he wasn't in peak form. He posted a strikeout rate of 21% or lower in each of those three starts, which is a far cry from the 30.3% he posted all of last season.
Sure, a three-game sample size isn't massive, but he's only eclipsed a 30.0% strikeout rate in 3 of his 17 starts this season. He hasn't been at the same level he was last season, and with the Rangers striking out at the sixth-lowest rate versus left-handed pitchers (20.6%), this isn't a great matchup in the first place.
Coming off of the IL with potentially limited pitches, a lower strikeout rate than prior seasons, and the toughest offense in the league all don't look good for McClanahan's potential tonight. Under 5.5 strikeouts is the way to go.
