MLB Betting Guide for Friday 5/5/23: Backing the Giants as a Home Underdog
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different by starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Chicago White Sox at Cincinnati Reds
Under 8.5 (+102)
Though it's frightening taking an under in the second-best hitter's park in baseball, today's recipe is about as good as it gets.
For an under in a Reds game, Hunter Greene is by far their best starting point. The young flamethrower has harnessed some of his power thus far in 2023 with a 2.89 ERA that's well-supported by a 3.48 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). Greene is striking out 32.0% of the batters he faces.
The opposing White Sox will send Lance Lynn to the bump, and Lynn has a case as one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball so far. His 7.16 ERA doesn't do him justice with a SIERA under four (3.99), and he's still got the swing-and-miss stuff (13.6% swinging-strike rate) that made him a two-time All-Star.
Both should have a great matchup tonight; Chicago and Cincinnati are tied for the fifth-worst wRC+ (82) in baseball against right-handed pitching.
Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks -1.5 (+105)
Though Merrill Kelly's profile isn't perfect, the Diamondbacks are in a great position for a comfortable win tonight.
Kelly wouldn't be the worst righty to shut down the opposing Washington Nationals this season -- or even close. The low-whiff pitcher has a 5.04 SIERA, but he's got a low flyball rate (34.6%) and hard-hit rate allowed (36.6%), but luckily, Washington presents very little danger. They have the second-worst OPS against righties (.629) to start the season.
Arizona, on the other hand, has a .760 OPS in the split (seventh-best in MLB), so Josiah Gray should have a tougher night at the office.
Like Kelly, Gray's performance isn't fairly indicated by a 2.67 ERA. Gray's SIERA is 4.58, and his strikeout binge last week has still left him with just a 22.0% rate to begin the year.
Even if against all odds these hurlers battle to a draw, Washington's bullpen is a great candidate to allow a backdoor cover to the Snakes' offense. Their xFIP (4.54) is quite a bit higher than Arizona's (4.34).
Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants
Giants ML (+102)
This isn't a fade of Corbin Burnes as much as a systematic fade of the Brewers' outlook tonight.
That said, Burnes' start to the year hasn't been amazing. He's got a 4.49 SIERA and is allowing a career-high 74.0% contact rate. Tonight, he'll be tasked with facing a San Francisco Giants offense that has the fifth-best wRC+ (122) against right-handers.
Though the former Cy Young winner can turn things around, the more troubling trend for Milwaukee is in their 'pen. Their 4.58 xFIP is the fifth-worst mark in the league so far.
Their offense will start tonight in a hole, too. Though San Fran's Sean Manaea (4.79 SIERA) hasn't been the strongest southpaw this year, he won't get a better chance to turn it around than the Brewers. Milwaukee is dead last in OPS (.605) and wRC+ (65) against lefties this season.
Starting pitching, hitting, and bullpen all favor the Giants tonight, but they're a home underdog going largely ignored by the public. We'll take that every time.
