4 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 4/26/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Freddie Freeman To Hit a Home Run (+470)/
James Outman To Hit a Home Run (+560)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a 4.55 implied run total tonight and are staring down a favorable matchup.

We know the Dodgers' lineup is great, and the power potential they have can come early and often in some of their games. That is what we could be seeing tonight versus the Pittsburgh Pirates, who will have Roansy Contreras on the mound.

In 2022, Contreras struggled against left-handed hitters, recording a .388 SLG, 1.38 HR/9, 5.01 xFIP, 47.9% fly-ball rate, and 18.3% strikeout rate in the split. He's not a dominant strikeout pitcher on the mound and if the fly balls are going to be an issue for him, there's some clear upside for the Dodgers' hitters.

We start with Freddie Freeman, who ended last season with a 167 wRC+, .406 wOBA, .194 ISO, 39.6% hard-contact rate, and 35.9% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers. He's been elite for a decade, and the matchup is clearly a good one against Contreras tonight.

Next up is the up-and-coming rookie, James Outman. He's off to a blazing start with a 194 wRC+, .462 wOBA, .415 ISO, 44.4% fly-ball rate, and 40.0% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. He's got the power, and the odds are pretty big for a player who sits in the top 10 of the league for homers.

As usual, I'm adding on Freeman To Record an RBI (+125) and Outman To Record an RBI (+120).

Kodai Senga Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-122)

The New York Mets will have Kodai Senga on the mound as they look to break a three-game losing streak.

Senga is set to take on the Washington Nationals, who present very little danger as a lineup but don't strike out a ton. This season, the Nationals have a 19.0% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the second-lowest in the league.

One of the worst teams in the MLB is actually one of the most disciplined at the plate. It's an interesting dynamic considering they also have a 72 wRC+ (28th), .280 wOBA (28th), .093 ISO (30th), and 30.1% hard-contact rate (22nd). Their offense is downright terrible, but they make a lot of contact.

When it comes to Senga, his 26.6% strikeout rate and 31.6% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%) are very solid marks, but a 14.9% walk rate is concerning. Letting hitters on base is always a dangerous thing, but most importantly, it drives up his pitch count, which prevents him from getting deeper into the game.

The Nats aren't an elite matchup for Senga, which has me siding with the under.

Shohei Ohtani To Record 2+ Total Bases (-110)

The Los Angeles Angels have a slate-high 5.60 implied run total and are expected to get plenty of runners on base.

When teams have high implied run totals, I'm always looking for some player props that are going to correlate with that. Tonight, that leads us to none other than Shohei Ohtani, who I've heard is pretty good at this baseball thing.

We have a literal all-world player at nearly even money for this prop.

Ohtani will be taking on Luis Medina, who will be making his MLB debut for the Oakland Athletics. Medina has pitched a total of 9.1 innings in Triple-A this season, his first year at that level. He is vastly inexperienced and now set to take on one of the greatest hitters in the league.

I'm simply siding with Ohtani and his 103 wRC+, .321 wOBA, .177 ISO, and 44.4% fly-ball rate against right-handed pitchers this season. It doesn't get much more straightforward than this.