3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 4/7/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Mookie Betts To Hit a Home Run (+320)

When it comes to home runs tonight, the Los Angeles Dodgers could be hitting them early and often.

That is because they are up against Madison Bumgarner, a pitcher we're going to be targeting whenever he is on the mound. Bumgarner struggled versus both lefties and righties last season, putting several of the Dodgers' hitters in play tonight. As of now, Will Smith doesn't have home run odds posted, but I'll have a ton of interest in his prop with his power potential.

Last season, Bumgarner allowed a .366 wOBA, .512 SLG, 4.79 xFIP, 1.61 HR/9, 42.3% fly-ball rate, and 38.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. Those are among the worst numbers on the slate, and with the number of power righties the Dodgers can put into a lineup, it won't be a shock to see a few of them go deep tonight.

Mookie Betts is an elite hitter, and given how soft this matchup is, his home run odds (+320) are a bit too long, making this one of my favorites on the slate. Last year, Betts had a 174 wRC+, .416 wOBA, .301 ISO, 50.8% fly-ball rate, and 40.8% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. I legitimately can't say a bad thing about Mookie; he's simply elite across the board. As always, I'm also adding Betts To Record an RBI (+100).

Randy Arozarena To Record 2+ Total Bases (+100)

The Tampa Bay Rays are on fire to start the season and look to continue that versus the Oakland Athletics tonight.

Oakland will have Ken Waldichuk on the mound, an inexperienced pitcher who hasn't shown much upside. Waldichuk had only 34.2 innings pitched in the MLB last season, which is a small sample size, but that's what we have to work with.

In 2022, Waldichuk allowed a .382 wOBA, .549 SLG, 4.43 xFIP, 1.75 HR/9, 46.1% fly-ball rate, and 35.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. Those aren't good numbers no matter how you slice it, putting the Rays' righties in a great matchup.

We turn to Randy Arozarena, who ended last season with 164 wRC+, .391 wOBA, .242 ISO, 19.4% strikeout rate, 38.9% fly-ball rate, and 35.8% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. Arozarena is a consistent hitter in this split and can hit this prop with one swing of the bat.

Madison Bumgarner Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+128)

As noted above, Bumgarner is not a good pitcher.

Bumgarner started the season against the Dodgers last week and is facing them again tonight. Conventional baseball wisdom says that the hitters are in a favorable spot when seeing a pitcher for the second time in a short window. That points us to the under for Bumgarner's strikeout prop, not to mention that he just isn't good anymore.

Last season, he posted a 16.0% strikeout rate, which was the second-lowest rate of his career. The league-average strikeout rate last season was 22.4% for pitchers, showing Bumgarner is clearly beyond being simply average.

The Dodgers are rocking a 5.27 implied run total tonight, and with the overall power the Dodgers have in their lineup, they could run Bumgarner out of the game quickly.