MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 10/4/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Miami Moneyline (+138): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
With Braxton Garrett going for Miami and Jake Odorizzi up for the Atlanta Braves, the Marlins have an edge on the mound, and we should always be interested in any underdog who has the advantage in starting pitchers.
Garrett has quietly been pretty darn good, pitching to a 3.46 SIERA, 23.8% strikeout rate, and 12.0% swinging-strike rate. His swing-and-miss stuff should play well today as Atlanta owns the third-highest strikeout rate (24.7%) in 2022.
Odorizzi hasn't been good all year, and he's struggling of late. Overall, he's pitched to a 4.69 SIERA and 18.2% strikeout rate this season. He's giving up a .352 wOBA and 48.9% fly-ball rate in the second half.
Our algorithm sees this game as a true 50-50 coin-flip, giving both sides exactly a 50.0% chance to win. That creates value on the underdog Marlins, and we rate taking Miami to win as a two-star bet (two-unit recommendation).
Tampa Bay Moneyline (-120): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Tampa Bay -1.5 (+142): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
The Tampa Bay Rays are priced as the favorite tonight, but our model likes the Rays a little more than oddsmakers do.
Tampa Bay is giving the ball to Jeffrey Springs. A breakout performer this season, Springs comes into this one with a 3.30 SIERA, 26.3% strikeout rate, and 13.6% swinging-strike rate. Springs' move to the rotation has gone really well, and he's permitted only five earned runs over his previous six outings -- a 31 1/3-inning stretch that includes four starts in which he gave up zero earned runs.
Nathan Eovaldi is getting the nod for the Boston Red Sox. While Eovaldi has been mostly fine this year, his 22.4% strikeout rate is his lowest since 2018. He's also allowed plenty of loud contact, giving up a 39.2% hard-hit rate and 1.81 homers per nine.
The Rays will have a big edge once the two starters are removed. Over the past 30 days, Boston's bullpen ranks 6th-worst in reliever xFIP (4.40) while Tampa Bay's ranks 11th-best (3.73).
Tampa Bay's -120 moneyline price implies win odds of 54.5%. We think the Rays come out on top 58.9% of the time and mark a Rays moneyline bet as a one-star wager.
We also see some value on the runline as we give Tampa a 47.4% chance to cover as 1.5-run favorites. Their +142 runline price implies odds of only 41.3%. Taking the Rays -1.5 is a two-star bet.