MLB Betting Guide: Friday 9/30/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Guardians Moneyline (-138): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Aaron Civale is a big reason why. He's been excellent in 31 second-half innings, recording a 26.2% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate while holding hitters to a sparkling .236 wOBA. It all adds up to a 2.66 FIP since the break, and he shouldn't have too much trouble with a KC offense he's held to three earned runs across 10 1/3 innings in two 2022 starts.
Brady Singer is up for the Royals. Like Civale, Singer has been really good in the second half, and he's allowed only one total earned run over his last three starts (20 innings). However, he's had a tough time with Cleveland this year. In three starts (16 innings), the Guardians have gotten to Singer for 10 total earned runs, including at least three earned runs in each outing.
Cleveland has a big edge once the two starters are out of this game. In the last 30 days, the Guardians rank sixth in reliever xFIP (3.53) while KC checks in ninth-worst (4.29).
We give Cleveland a 63.1% chance to win. The -138 moneyline price implies win odds of 58.0%. Taking the Guardians on the moneyline is a two-star wager (two-unit recommendation), according to our numbers.
Braves Moneyline (+114): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
The headline matchup of the night is in Atlanta. It will be playoff-like baseball as the Atlanta Braves host the New York Mets, with Atlanta one game back of New York in the NL East. Both team have aces going -- Jacob deGrom for the Mets and Max Fried for Atlanta.
It's zero fun to bet against deGrom; I get it. But there are reasons to be into the underdog Braves.
For one, Atlanta might be the better all-around squad. By run differential, Atlanta is that. The Braves' +179 run differential is ahead of New York's +156 clip.
And deGrom is in a rut. Over his previous three starts (15 innings), he's permitted 11 earned runs. He just issued four walks last time out, and that three-start run was a trio of easy matchups against the Oakland Athletics, Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates. To be fair, deGrom did fan 28 in those 15 innings, because of course he did.
Fried is very much not in a rut. He's held the opposition to two or fewer earned runs in nine consecutive starts. In that time, he's punched out 50 in 55 innings and pieced together a pair of two-run starts versus the Mets. He's seen the Mets three times this year and has given up exactly two earned runs in all three starts.
Our model gives the Braves win odds of 54.1%. -- much better than their 46.7% implied odds at the +114 moneyline. Taking them to win is another two-star bet.