FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Sunday 9/25/22
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Dylan Cease ($10,500)
At his lowest salary point this month, Chicago's right-hander will challenge a Detroit Tigers' lineup with a .287 weighted on-base average and a 26.7% K-rate including six Tigers' batters with K-rates between 25.4% and 30.2% and contact rates ranging from 59.4% to 75.5%.
Despite recording his worst month in August (4.54 expected Fielding Independent Pitching rating in 30.1 innings), Cease has displayed improved form in his last four starts, recording a 3.73 xFIP, a 12.1% swinging strike rate, and seven or more strikeouts in 75% of these appearances.
With Sunday's top strikeout expectation (7.64) and fantasy projection (38.9 FanDuel points) by more than three points, the 26-year old offers plenty of ceiling when evaluating his 3.71 value rating and personal success in this specific matchup (two earned runs allowed and 24 strikeouts in 16.0 innings).
Nick Lodolo ($9,800)
After a recent impressive stretch in September averaging 46 FanDuel points and 9.5 strikeouts through four starts, Lodolo will take the mound in a divisional matchup versus a Milwaukee Brewers' team with an advantageous .289 wOBA, 27.3% K-rate, and 34% hard hit rate.
As numberFire's fourth rated pitcher with a 33.3 FanDuel point projection and 6.98 strikeouts, Cincinnati's southpaw has a great spot at his median salary in September against six Milwaukee hitters with strikeout percentages over 26.9% and contact rates under 74.3%.
Luis Castillo ($9,600)
In his first appearance after signing a monster five-year extension, Castillo will face a Kansas City Royals with a .303 wOBA and a 24.7% strikeout percentage including six batters with K-rates between 25.4% and 27.8%.
Considering his stellar recent form including a 3.01 xFIP and a 29.1% K-rate through 54.2 innings, Seattle's right-hander should be able to bounce back at his lowest salary point this month after recording his worst start as a Mariner.
Cristian Javier (9.500)
Despite producing consecutive scoreless outings, Javier's salary has remained at his median point in September against a Baltimore Orioles' unit with a .294 wOBA, 26.1% strikeout percentage, and a weak 69.9% contact rate.
When evaluating his elite ability to induce strikeouts (32.7% K-rate, 13.8% swinging strike percentage) and Baltimore's lack of patience (5.6% walk rate), Houston's right-hander should be able to reach his high expectations including Sunday's third best fantasy projection at 34.1 FanDuel points and 6.52 Ks in 5.3 innings.
After a disappointing four-game stretch producing just 11 total runs, the White Sox will attempt to reach today's slate-high offensive total at 4.7 against Tyler Alexander.
In his last nine starts, Alexander has pitched similar to his yearly advanced form (4.91 xFIP), accounting for a 4.92 xFIP, a 6.7% swinging strike rate, and a concerning 11.7% opposing barrel rate.
With his main weakness revolving around his trouble against right-handed bats (4.95 xFIP, .352 wOBA), Yoan Moncada (8.8% barrel rate), A.J. Pollock (9.6% barrel rate, .420 expected slugging), Andrew Vaughn (8% barrel rate, .324 expected wOBA), Seby Zavala (9.3% barrel rate), and Romy Gonzalez (10.5% barrel percentage) present ideal stacking candidates against Detroit's southpaw.
In a matchup versus Baltimore's Austin Voth, the Astros contain an underrated 4.4 run total against a right-hander who often struggles against the opposing side of the plate (5.21 xFIP, .348 wOBA) while also allowing a 16.3% home run to fly-ball percentage to right-handed hitters.
Ideal Houston combinations can contain any of their best power hitters with main focus on Yordan Alvarez (.673 expected slugging, 21.1% barrel rate) and Kyle Tucker (10.5% barrel rate, .488 expected slugging) as core pieces while Jose Altuve (7.9% barrel rate, .435 expected slugging), Aledmys Diaz (.404 expected slugging, 6.9% barrel rate), Alex Bregman (7.7% barrel rate, 420 expected slugging), and Chas McCormick (11% barrel rate, .415 expected slugging) profile well enough for stacking.
To best attack his trouble against left-handed bats (4.61 career xFIP, .336 wOBA, 15.8% K-rate), Atlanta stacks should first include Michael Harris II (11% barrel rate, .474 expected slugging) and Matt Olson (.440 expected slugging, 12.3% barrel rate) as top targets while Austin Riley (16% barrel rate, .543 expected slugging, 29.7% fly-ball rate), Dansby Swanson (27.1% fly-ball rate, 10.4% barrel rate), Travis d'Arnaud (.407 expected slugging, 7.7% barrel rate), William Contreras (14% barrel rate, .492 expected slugging), and Vaughn Grissom (.425 expected slugging, 7.6% barrel rate) can still be mixed in.