MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 9/22/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Giants Moneyline (-116): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Giants -1.5 (+130): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Our algorithm doesn't see a lot of value on the board this evening, so let's tap into an afternoon affair with this game starting at 3:10 p.m. EST.
The San Francisco Giants are slim -116 moneyline favorites today at Coors, but we like them more than oddsmakers do.
Jose Urena is pitching for the Colorado Rockies, and he's the main reason to be into the Giants in this one. Urena sports a 5.23 SIERA and 12.9% strikeout rate. Coors is the worst place for a low-strikeout pitcher, and Urena has surrendered a .366 wOBA and 1.41 homers per nine in Denver.
We have the Giants scoring 6.65 runs, so while San Francisco's pitching situation isn't ideal, either, we think their offense can carry the day.
John Brebbia is opening what will be a bullpen-ish game for San Fran. Over the past 30 days, the Giants' bullpen is right at the league average in terms of xFIP (3.95). Brebbia actually did exactly this on Tuesday, as well, pitching one scoreless inning. Sean Hjelle is expected to follow, and Hjelle spent most of this year at Triple-A, amassing a gaudy 56.7% ground-ball rate, although he struck out just 18.1% of hitters.
The Giants' -116 moneyline price implies win odds of 53.7%. We give the Giants a 61.3% chance to win. We also like their chances to cover as 1.5-run favorites. Despite a +130 price (43.5% implied) on the Giants' runline, we expect them to cover 50.0% of the time. Both bets are two-star plays (two-unit recommendations), according to our numbers.
Over 7.5 (-118): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model is into the over for this AL East matchup.
Jose Berrios is starting for the Toronto Blue Jays, and the Tampa Bay Rays are going with opener J.T. Chargois, who is expected to be followed by Ryan Yarbrough. That means both offenses are in a good spot.
The Jays' righty-heavy lineup should be able to do damage against the left-handed Yarbrough. In 79 MLB frames this season, Yarbrough has recorded a 17.2% strikeout rate while permitting a 40.2% fly-ball rate. Righties have smashed him for a .363 wOBA while striking out just 15.2% of the time. He has a tall task in front of him against Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez and company.
Tampa's offense can have a day against Berrios, as well. The Jays' righty is having a rough campaign and has lost his swing-and-miss stuff, posting a 19.8% strikeout rate. While he's mostly limited the damage of late, he's still struck out just nine over his previous 18 1/3 innings.
We project the final score to be 4.26-4.11 in favor of Tampa -- a total of 8.37 runs. Our model likes taking the Rays on the moneyline (+110) as a two-star bet, but I'm more into the over. We think the over wins out 59.3% of the time, rating it as another two-star wager.