3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Friday 9/9/22
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
As a result of this, the primary method of selecting hitters is to "stack" certain teams in good spots to produce. Most of the top stacks on a given day come with hefty salaries. In addition to that, a vast majority of pitchers with the upside to win tournaments are high-salaried hurlers.
Therefore, crushing your value plays -- whether it be a pitcher unexpectedly piling up strikeouts or a low-salaried batter racking up points -- can be the secret sauce to taking down a tournament.
Which budget options stand out today on FanDuel?
Lucas Giolito, P, White Sox ($8,200)
We have a few viable value arms on this slate. Lucas Giolito is my favorite of the bunch.
The matchup has a lot to do with it as he's taking on the Oakland Athletics. Oakland's active roster is 28th in wOBA (.285) with the 9th-highest strikeout rate (23.1%). The A's have a 3.61 implied total, a number we can feel good about picking on.
Giolito has taken a step back this year, with his 25.3% strikeout rate and 11.7% swinging-strike rate his worst marks since his 2019 breakout. With that said, his 3.77 SIERA isn't that bad, and he's been much better on the road, permitting a .337 wOBA in the split, compared to a .382 wOBA at home.
With this one at pitcher-friendly RingCentral Coliseum, Giolito can deliver the goods on Friday. We project him for 30.6 FanDuel points.
Wander Franco, SS, Rays ($300)
Welp, this is a first.
Wander Franco is expected to be activated off the IL today, and his salary is $300. Yes, $300. It reminds me of when Taysom Hill was tight-end eligible one week in NFL DFS but was playing actually quarterback.
The $300 salary makes Franco an obvious value, and he's going to be the best point-per-dollar option -- by a mile -- in every projection model out there. If Franco's popularity is expected to get out of hand, you can easily justify fading him in a tough matchup with Frankie Montas. Baseball is baseball, after all.
But Franco gives you so much salary flexibility elsewhere that he's hard to turn down if he does get back in the lineup.
Max Kepler, OF, Twins ($2,200)
Max Kepler has a friendly matchup against righty Cal Quantrill.
Quantrill is striking out just 16.2% of hitters this season, and he's giving up a 41.1% fly-ball rate to lefties.
Kepler -- who sat yesterday -- is projected to hit third. A .249 BABIP with the platoon advantage has played a part in bogging down Kepler's 2022 numbers, but he was good in this split a year ago, racking up a .337 wOBA, 39.6% hard-hit rate and 44.9% fly-ball rate against right-handers.
The Minnesota Twins' 3.78 implied total takes them off the stacking radar for me, but Kepler is a handy one-off salary-saver.
