MLB Betting Guide: Monday 8/22/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Reds Moneyline (+204): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Over 8.5 (-120): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Noah Syndergaard and Luis Cessa square off today in Philly, and our model gives the underdog Cincinnati Reds a decent chance -- well, at least a slightly better chance than what oddsmakers are giving Cincy.
Cessa has made 36 of his 37 appearances this season out of the bullpen, but he's starting this one. While Cessa probably isn't stretched out for more than a handful of innings, he's been throwing the ball really well of late, giving up zero earned runs over his previous seven innings (seven appearances).
He's just one of a few Cincy relievers who are in good form right now as the Reds' bullpen owns the 10th-best xFIP (3.81) across the past 30 days -- and that should help them today in what will likely amount to a bullpen game.
On the other side, Syndergaard has been extremely blah this season, posting a 4.22 SIERA and 18.3% strikeout rate. His strikeout rate has dropped to 15.6% in 18 innings since being dealt to the Philadelphia Phillies. He'll be backed up by a Philly 'pen that has the 12th-worst xFIP (3.98) over the last 30 days.
Our model has Philly winning this game 66.2% of the time, which means we think the Reds' win odds are 33.8%. Cincy's implied win odds at their +204 moneyline price are 32.9%. It's not much, but there's a sliver of value on the Reds to win. We rate that as a one-star bet (one-unit recommendation).
We also see some value on the over. We project 10.03 total runs to be scored and give the over a 62.9% chance to cash. It's a two-star wager, per our algorithm.
Over 8.5 (-118): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Our numbers point to the Atlanta Braves' offense having a big night, and that should help this game get to the over.
Atlanta is facing Roansy Contreras. A rookie, Contreras has flashed good stuff at times this year, and he's shown the ability to miss bats at a solid rate, recording a 12.4% swinging-strike rate. But he's had his struggles, too. Contreras has walked 10.7% of hitters and is allowing a 41.4% fly-ball rate. That's led to a 4.43 SIERA and 1.45 jacks per nine.
After Contreras is out of the game, he'll hand the ball to a Pittsburgh Pirates 'pen that is dead last in reliever xFIP (4.70) over the last 30 days.
All of that points to Atlanta's offense -- a unit that is second in wOBA (.330) for the season -- having a huge night. We peg them to push across 5.70 runs.
As long as Atlanta's bats do their thing, we don't need too much from the Pirates' offense. That's good because this offense is 28th in wOBA (.288) for the campaign. However, they shouldn't be overpowered by Jake Odorizzi.
Odorizzi has an ugly 4.77 SIERA and 17.3% strikeout rate this year. He's permitted 18 earned runs over his last six starts (31 innings), a span which includes a combined three outings versus the Oakland Athletics (twice) and Miami Marlins. We have Pittsburgh scoring 4.18 runs.
So, in all, we project there to be a total of 9.98 runs in this game. We give the over a 61.7% chance to hit and assign it a two-star rating.