3 Daily Fantasy Baseball Stacks for Thursday 7/28/22
Stacks are an integral part of daily fantasy baseball. They can push a team to the top of a GPP by driving upside. However, they're also viable in cash games, namely smaller (two-person or three-person) stacks that mitigate the volatility of a full four-person stack.
This article is your home throughout the 2022 Major League Baseball season for the day's top stacks. The primary goal is to identify the highest-scoring upside stack. Still, game theory will play a role in contrarian stacks making the cut as GPP options. Nevertheless, chalky stacks will make appearances in this space, too.
Beyond my analysis in this space, I strongly suggest numberFire premium members using our DFS Sharpstack tool and hitting heat map tool. The DFS Sharpstack helps plug stacks into optimized lineups, allowing you to change parameters and lock or exclude players and teams. Meanwhile, the heat map offers a one-stop-shop for the opposing starting pitcher, implied total, park factor, and other notable goodies.
Now, let's look at the top stacks on today's main slate.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers get a pick-me-up at Coors Field tonight. They face a pitcher who's been lucky and isn't a big-league caliber starter. Jose Urena has recorded a 3.00 ERA in four starts (24.0 innings), but his 4.51 xFIP tells a different story.
Urena has had a 10.0 percent walk rate, 14.0 percent strike rate, and 8.1 percent swinging-strike rate -- all of which forbode upcoming regression. Of course, his 4.70 ERA and 4.85 xFIP for his career also indicate the 30-year-old pitcher is pitching over his skis. Despite overachieving, Urena has coughed up a .389 wOBA to lefties this year.
As a result, Freddie Freeman ($4,300) is the must-have hitter in this stack. Since last year, Freeman has ripped righties for a .413 OBP, .221 ISO, and 156 wRC+. Freeman has also been white-hot, owning a .418 OBP, .299 ISO, and 197 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Gavin Lux ($2,600) is cap-friendly lefty exposure to Urena. If Jake Lamb ($2,200) starts, he's an intriguing option. Finally, Will Smith ($2,900) is a cap-friendly righty who's thrived at Coors Field. According to Baseball Reference, Smith has a 1.073 OPS in 125 plate appearances in Colorado.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays let me down last night, but I suggest going back to the well tonight. The Blue Jays are a rebound pick against Tyler Alexander. The lefty has had a 4.05 ERA and 4.77 xFIP in 33 and 1/3 innings in 2022. However, those marks are generous since he's pitched 21 innings in relief and been battered for an 8.76 ERA and 5.05 xFIP in four starts (12 and 1/3 innings).
The lefty has been homer-prone as a starter, ceding 2.19 jacks per nine innings. Alexander has also been a punching bag for right-handed hitters. In his career, he's coughed up a .500 slugging and .350 wOBA to 737 righties.
The righty-laden Blue Jays should tee off tonight.
My favorite pick from the Blue Jays is Teoscar Hernandez ($3,700). The power-packed outfielder has unloaded on lefties for a .309 ISO and 154 wRC+ since 2019. Matt Chapman ($3,400) is another enticing power source, muscling up for a .259 ISO against lefties since 2019. Obviously, we can use studs like George Springer ($4,000), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4,000), and Bo Bichette ($3,400), or we can include Santiago Espinal ($2,500) if we want to swerve or lack the cap space for the studs.
Logan Gilbert is a good pitcher, so suggesting the Houston Astros is with GPPs in mind. Houston's high-powered offense might be overlooked on this small slate. First, there's a game at Coors. Second, the Blue Jays are at home. Third, there's a game at hitter-friendly Fenway. As a result, the Astros might fly under the radar.
Using the Astros in a possible contrarian situation is attractive. They're a high-powered offense, ranking fourth in wRC+ (114) against righties. Houston is fifth in wRC+ (117) over the last 30 days. They've also given the home crowd lots to cheer about this year, tying for first in wRC+ (122) in home games in 2022.
If you want to fade the chalkier stacks, you might as well lean into Houston's studs, which means selecting Jose Altuve ($4,200), Yordan Alvarez ($4,600), and Kyle Tucker ($3,600). The three hitters are Houston's most accomplished against righties since last season. Altuve, Tucker, and Alvarez have ripped righties for a 134 wRC+, 149 wRC+, and 172 wRC+, respectively, since 2021.
Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.