3 Daily Fantasy Baseball Stacks for Friday 7/22/22
Stacks are an integral part of daily fantasy baseball. They can push a team to the top of a GPP by driving upside. However, they're also viable in cash games, namely smaller (two-person or three-person) stacks that mitigate the volatility of a full four-person stack.
This article is your home throughout the 2022 Major League Baseball season for the day's top stacks. The primary goal is to identify the highest-scoring upside stack. Still, game theory will play a role in contrarian stacks making the cut as GPP options. Nevertheless, chalky stacks will make appearances in this space, too.
Beyond my analysis in this space, I strongly suggest numberFire premium members using our DFS Sharpstack tool and hitting heat map tool. The DFS Sharpstack helps plug stacks into optimized lineups, allowing you to change parameters and lock or exclude players and teams. Meanwhile, the heat map offers a one-stop-shop for the opposing starting pitcher, implied total, park factor, and other notable goodies.
Now, let's look at the top stacks on today's main slate.
The Houston Astros are facing an overachieving lefty tonight. Admittedly, Marco Gonzales isn't a stranger to outperforming his ERA estimators. Still, according to FanGraphs, the lefty has a 3.50 ERA and 4.92 xFIP in 2022.
In addition, Gonzales' 12.3 percent strikeout rate is his worst in a season in which he made more than one appearance in his career, and his 7.9 percent walk rate is his worst since his debut in 2014. He's a ticking time bomb for regression.
Gonzales hasn't done well against lefties or righties. Fellow lefties have crushed him for a .364 wOBA in 2022, and righties have had a .324 wOBA.
Gonzales's struggles with lefties thrust Yordan Alvarez ($4,400) to the top of the heap for Houston's stacking options. In his career, he's smashed lefties for a .272 ISO and 149 wRC+.
Jose Altuve ($4,000) and Jeremy Pena ($2,900) are also elite options from the leadoff and second spots in the order. However, Chas McCormick ($2,300) is an awesome punt, too. He's had a .357 OBP, .244 ISO, and 146 wRC+ in 154 plate appearances against southpaws in his young career.
The Milwaukee Brewers are in a smash spot against Antonio Senzatela. The 27-year-old righty has been a punching bag in the Majors. He has had a 4.95 ERA and 5.93 Expected ERA (xERA) in 13 starts this season. Further, Senzatela has had a 5.19 ERA in 288 innings on the road in his career, allowing a .341 wOBA to boot.
The host Brewers will also benefit from facing the relievers on the Colorado Rockies. Colorado's relievers have had the third-highest ERA (4.69) this season. So, Milwaukee can knock Senzatela around and continue the beatings when the bullpen gets the ball.
Rowdy Tellez ($2,700) is my favorite option from the Brewers. In 179 plate appearances against righties at home since joining the Brewers last year, he's had a .299 ISO and 129 wRC+.
Willy Adames ($3,500) is another superb pick who's muscled up against righties at home since the Brewers acquired him in 2021. In 232 plate appearances, he's mashed 16 taters with a .277 ISO.
San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants are opposing All-Star lefty Tyler Anderson tonight. Anderson earned his All-Star nod, so he isn't an easy assignment for the Giants. However, he showed some cracks leading up to the Midsummer Classic.
In his previous five starts, Anderson's 3.26 ERA has been markedly better than his 4.43 xFIP and 4.61 SIERA. Anderson has also struck out only 14.9 percent of hitters during that stretch, putting his fate in the hands of batted-ball results. Continuing to rely on a pitch-to-contact approach could burn him tonight. The Giants are sixth in wRC+ (118) against lefties this year with an impressive .196 ISO.
Evan Longoria ($2,400) and Darin Ruf ($2,400) are two of the top-shelf stacking option from the Giants tonight. Since 2019, Longo has teed off on lefties for a .378 OBP, .222 ISO, and 139 wRC+. Ruf has terrorized lefties since returning from the Korean Baseball Organization in 2020. He has a .384 OBP, .288 ISO, and 156 wRC+.
Overall, San Francisco should have at least six hitters with at least a 130 wRC+ against lefties since 2019 (or since debuting) in their lineup tonight.
Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.