3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Wednesday 7/13/22
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
As a result of this, the primary method of selecting hitters is to "stack" certain teams in good spots to produce. Most of the top stacks on a given day come with hefty salaries. In addition to that, a vast majority of pitchers with the upside to win tournaments are high-salaried hurlers.
Therefore, crushing your value plays -- whether it be a pitcher unexpectedly piling up strikeouts or a low-salaried batter racking up points -- can be the secret sauce to taking down a tournament.
Which budget options stand out today on FanDuel?
Jorge Alfaro, C, San Diego Padres ($2,800)
With a slate-high 5.82 implied run total, the San Diego Padres are a spot to look for some value tonight.
Jorge Alfaro could be that player to offer some value tonight in the best hitter's park in the league -- Coors Field. He's going to be up against Chad Kuhl, who is allowing a .351 SLG, a 4.36 xFIP, a low 16.9% strikeout rate, and a 42.3% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters this season. This should put Alfaro and several of Padres' hitters in a great spot tonight to push past their 5.82 implied total.
Alfaro comes in with modest numbers overall in this split, with a 92 wRC+, a 31.8% hard-contact rate, and a .295 wOBA. However, despite those modest numbers, Alfaro is projected for 13.3 FanDuel points and is the fourth-best value option on tonight's slate, per our model.
The potential upside from playing at Coors Field presents plenty of fantasy production.
Rafael Ortega, OF, Chicago Cubs ($2,500)
The Chicago Cubs have a solid matchup and plenty of value tonight.
The red-hot Baltimore Orioles will have Spenser Watkins on the mound -- a pitcher we can certainly look to attack. Watkins comes in allowing a .363 SLG, a .308 wOBA a 4.60 xFIP, a 9.1% walk rate, and a 35.7% hard-contact rate to left-handed hitters this season.
Those are very mediocre numbers overall, and it doesn't mention the fact he has a super-low 11.4% strikeout rate in this spilt.
Watkins isn't overpowering, and we can look to Rafael Ortega for the platoon advantage tonight. Ortega comes in with a 111 wRC+, a .329 wOBA, a 12.6% walk rate, a 43.4% fly-ball rate, and a .139 ISO versus right-handed pitchers.
He isn't a big power guy, but he's going to put the ball in play and is a threat to steal a base.
Yoan Moncada, 3B, Chicago White Sox ($2,300)
While the Chicago White Sox aren't consistent, they always have some power potential.
Hopefully, that power will be on display tonight against Aaron Civale, a pitcher that struggles with too many fly balls. This season, Civale is allowing a .467 SLG, a .338 wOBA, and a 37.9% fly-ball rate to left-handed hitters, which all lead to 1.17 HR/9 allowed. Those aren't the best numbers for Civale, and that puts the White Sox (4.04 implied run total) in a good spot.
Yoan Moncada offers a ton of salary relief but can be highly variable. He's been on and off the injured list this season, and that has led to lackluster numbers across the board. However, there are encouraging signs for Moncada; he is posting a 46.4% hard-contact rate and a 42.9% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers in July.
Yes, that's a smaller sample size of only 37 plate appearances, compared to 43 in June and 56 in May. The other ray of hope is that his strikeout rate in the split is down to 18.9% compared to 27.9% in June, and 32.1% in May.
His underlying metrics are there, and it's just time for him to realize it at the plate.