MLB Betting Guide: Friday 7/8/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Miami Marlins at New York Mets
Miami Moneyline (+136): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model likes the underdog Miami Marlins' chances today at the New York Mets better than oddsmakers do.
Pablo Lopez is a big reason why. Lopez is having another excellent campaign, pitching to a 3.58 SIERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, and 13.4% swinging-strike rate. The swinging-strike rate is a career-best mark, so there's room for positive regression on his good-not-great strikeout rate.
While Lopez has hit work cut out for him facing a Mets offense with the 9th-best wOBA for the year (.320), the Mets haven't been as potent lately, ranking 20th in wOBA over the past 30 days (.308).
Chris Bassitt is getting the ball for New York. Across the board, Bassitt has maintained or improved the numbers he posted last year in his breakout 2021. He's got a 3.49 SIERA and 25.7% strikeout rate, although his 10.2% swinging-strike rate leaves a little to be desired.
The issue for Bassitt today is this will be his first start after an IL stint for COVID. He hasn't pitched since June 25th, and it's not a given he'll be 100%. Plus, the Marlins' offense isn't a complete pushover as they check in right around the league average in wOBA (.307).
Our model has the Mets winning this game 54.5% of the time, so we give the Marlins win odds of 45.5%. At their +136 price, Miami's implied win odds are just 42.4%. There's a bit of value in backing the Marlins on the moneyline, a bet we rate as a one-star wager.
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
Over 8.0 (-110): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
We missed with the over in this game last night as Beau Brieske surprisingly baffled the Chicago White Sox. Our algorithm points to the over again in the second game of the series.
Tarik Skubal and Lucas Giolito are the probable pitchers, and both have been struggling of late.
Skubal started the year in great form, but he's permitted at least three earned runs in six straight starts, a stretch which includes pretty soft matchups with the Kansas City Royals, Pittsburgh Pirates and Texas Rangers. Looking at just Skubal's last five appearances, he's been tagged for 1.96 dingers per nine with an 18.5% strikeout rate and 13.0% walk rate. While his 4.74 xFIP in that span is miles better than his 9.00 ERA, Skubal clearly isn't pitching well right now.
Giolito is in a similar funk, although he's shown signs of snapping out of it in his last two starts. Prior to those past two, Giolito put up a 16.7% strikeout rate and 5.25 xFIP while allowing 3.00 taters per nine in a miserable four-game run. Giolito has a nice matchup versus the Detroit Tigers, but the Tigers' offense has shown a pulse lately, ranking 16th in wOBA over the past 14 days (.317).
We see both offenses faring decently well today, projecting the Pale Hose to win 4.83-4.64. That's 9.47 total runs, and we project the over to win out 58.2% of the time. We assign it a three-star rating, our highest of the night.