3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 7/8/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Rowdy Tellez To Hit a Home Run (+340)/Willy Adames To Hit a Home Run (+340)
With a 14-game MLB slate to close the week, let's get into some player props.
The Milwaukee Brewers are at home with a 4.64 implied run total and are set to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates, who will have JT Brubaker on the mound. This should put several of the Brewers' hitters in a good spot to go deep, starting with Rowdy Tellez and Willy Adames.
This season, Brubaker is allowing a .436 SLG, a .330 wOBA, 1.06 HR/9, a 4.41 xFIP, and a 46.7% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters. That puts Tellez -- with his 127 wRC+, .354 wOBA, .280 ISO, 43.3% fly-ball rate, and 39.2% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers - in a great spot.
Much of the same can be said for Adames, who comes in with a 99 wRC+, a .240 ISO, a 45.3% fly-ball rate, and a 35.2% hard-contact versus right-handed pitchers. Brubaker is allowing 0.91 HR/9, a .396 SLG, a .326 wOBA, and a 4.01 xFIP versus right-handed hitters.
Of course, we should look to add Tellez To Record an RBI (+125) and Adames To Record an RBI (+130).
Aaron Civale Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-128)
With a low strikeout prop, Aaron Civale is on my radar tonight.
For the second day in a row, we're looking at a lower strikeout prop with some decent upside. Civale comes in with a modest 21.5% strikeout rate this season but has pushed that a bit higher since he returned from the injured list. Civale posted single-game strikeout rates of 33.3% and 27.3% in two of his three starts since returning. An encouraging sign from the righty, albeit a small sample size.
Civale will be up against the Kansas City Royals, who come in with a 21.5% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is just the 20th-highest in the league. It's not an overwhelming matchup for Civale, but he is trending up and is capable of going deep into this one after posting 99 pitches in his most recent outing.
Mike Trout To Record An RBI (+120)
This is a plus-money prop for the best player in the MLB.
Mike Trout to record an RBI is plus money tonight, and I love the matchup. Trout is up against Tyler Wells, who is allowing a .373 SLG, a 5.31 xFIP, 1.11 HR/9, and a 50.8% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. Admittedly, Wells has gotten a bit lucky this season and hasn't been burned too much by the high fly-ball rate. However, regression comes for each and every player; Wells is no exception.
In that same vein, the law of averages favors Trout. He comes in with only a single hit and a single RBI over his last six games. It's a weird stretch for him, but he's beyond an elite hitter. He's carrying a 160 wRC+, a .393 wOBA, a .358 ISO, a 63.1% fly-ball rate, and a 37.7% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season.
He's too good to not produce and is due for a big game. That's why I'm also going to Trout 2+ RBI (+490).