3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 7/1/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Pete Alonso To Hit a Home Run (+255)
With a loaded slate of MLB games, let's jump into some player props to close out the week.
As always, there are a number of hitters who have my eye for home runs tonight, and Pete Alonso (+255) is at the top of my list. Outside of him, I'm also going to be on Byron Buxton (+240), Paul Goldschmidt (+280), and Austin Riley (+250).
The New York Mets have a solid 4.86 implied run total tonight at home and are taking on Glenn Otto from the Texas Rangers. This season, Otto is allowing a .487 SLG to right-handed hitters, along with a .386 wOBA, a 5.22 xFIP, 1.33 HR/9, 34.9% fly-ball rate, and a 38.1% hard-contact rate.
These are great numbers to see when we are looking for a home run, and that's what leads us to Alonso. He comes in with a 164 wRC+, a .400 wOBA, a .292 ISO, a 44.5% fly-ball rate, and a 37.2% hard-contact rate. To say this is as perfect of a hitting profile as we could ask for would be an understatement.
It's an elite matchup no matter how you look at it, and I'm also going to Alonso To Record an RBI (-105) and Alonso 2+ RBI (+340).
Lance Lynn Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+114)
Let's head to the West Coast for a strikeout prop tonight.
Lynn has only three starts under his belt this season since he started the year on the injured list. During that time, he has a 23.3% strikeout rate while racking up 4, 5, and 8 strikeouts. I'm expecting the strikeout rate to rise in the coming weeks; he had been at or above a 25.9% strikeout rate in each of the last three seasons.
What's also good to see -- Lynn hasn't been on a pitch count in these first three starts, amassing a total of 88, 92, and 109 pitches. These are all encouraging signs as he is set to take on the Giants, who come in with a 22.6% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers (13th-worst in the league).
He's an elite arm that is rounding into full strength and big upside. With that said, it's reasonable to add his alternate props of Lynn 7+ Strikeouts (+235) and Lynn 8+ Strikeouts (+480).
Kyle Tucker To Record an RBI (+130)
The Houston Astros have a 4.43 implied run total tonight and are primed for some offense.
It's a great matchup for the Astros' hitters tonight, and we're getting a plus money prop for Kyle Tucker, who hits in the heart of their order. Tucker will be taking Michael Lorenzen, who is a pitcher we don't need to worry about, and, in fact, we want to be actively targeting when he is on the slate.
This season, Lorenzen is allowing a .473 SLG, a .376 wOBA, a 5.50 xFIP, 1.57 HR/9, and a 32.3% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters. Tucker is among the best left-handed hitters in the league with a 143 wRC+, a .363 wOBA, a .229 ISO, 49.6% fly-ball rate, and a 33.6% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.
Top to bottom, it's a great matchup for Tucker, who is always a threat for a big game. Adding Tucker 2+ RBI (+490) is on the table as well.