3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Tuesday 6/28/22
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
As a result of this, the primary method of selecting hitters is to "stack" certain teams in good spots to produce. Most of the top stacks on a given day come with hefty salaries. In addition to that, a vast majority of pitchers with the upside to win tournaments are high-salaried hurlers.
Therefore, crushing your value plays -- whether it be a pitcher unexpectedly piling up strikeouts or a low-salaried batter racking up points -- can be the secret sauce to taking down a tournament.
Which budget options stand out today on FanDuel?
Luis Castillo, P, Reds ($8,500)
Just to be transparent: it's not a great slate to roll the dice on a low-salary arm. We have 12 guys salaried at $9,000 or above, and several of them -- including Carlos Rodon ($10,600), Sean Manaea ($9,800), and Robbie Ray ($10,200) -- possess nice upside. On top of that, the value pitching options aren't all that enticing.
With that said, it is a Coors slate, so finding low-salary production on the mound would be a huge help -- if you can find it.
Of the value hurlers, Luis Castillo stands out in a matchup with the Chicago Cubs.
We have to talk ourselves into this one, because the big-time strikeout juice hasn't been there in 2022 for Castillo, who boasts a blah 22.9% strikeout rate and 10.5% swinging-strike rate. And the Cubs have been a decent offense of late, carrying the 9th-lowest strikeout rate (20.8%) over the last 30 days while recording the 13th-best wOBA (.320) in that span.
But if any low-salary arm goes off and matches the upside of this slate's studs, Castillo is likely to be the one. We project him for a solid 29.5 FanDuel points.
Michael Chavis, 1B/2B/3B, Pirates ($2,500)
With Coors bats and all the good high-salary pitching options, it's imperative to find a few low-salary bats you can plug in.
Enter Michael Chavis and the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Chavis offers good pop against lefties, and he's taking on southpaw Patrick Corbin. Corbin has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season, sporting a 6.46 expected ERA. That's, um, not good. Righties have mauled him to the tune of a .373 wOBA and 40.0% hard-hit rate.
Chavis has mashed his way to a .373 wOBA -- yes, oddly the same wOBA Corbin is permitting to righties -- and 42.6% fly-ball rate this year with the platoon advantage. He's got five taters in 87 plate appearances in the split.
Eligible at three positions, Chavis is a very handy piece tonight, and he's not the only Pittsburgh bat you can turn to for cap relief as Bryan Reynolds ($2,800) rates out as another one of the slate's best point-per-dollar sticks, per our projections.
Kole Calhoun, OF, Rangers ($2,300)
The Texas Rangers are another good place to look for a low-salary stack or one-off plays.
Texas is up against Jon Heasley, the owner of a 5.26 career SIERA who is walking 12.2% of hitters this season. Lefties have enjoyed enormous success against the right-hander, with Heasley allowing a .383 wOBA and 2.93 jacks per nine in the split.
Calhoun is a fantastic way to take advantage of those numbers. The veteran outfielder usually hits in the heart of the Rangers' lineup, and he's got a 38.6% hard-hit rate and 39.4% fly-ball rate this year versus righties.
Texas holds the fourth-highest implied total (4.84) as of early Tuesday, and we project Calhoun for 11.8 FanDuel points, slotting him as the fourth-best point-per-dollar hitter.
With Texas in such a money spot, Mitch Garver ($2,500), Jonah Heim ($2,600), Nate Lowe ($2,900), and Marcus Semien ($3,000) are all plenty viable as bats at $3,000 or under. Josh Smith ($2,200) hit leadoff the last time Texas saw a righty, and he'd be a smashing value play if he's in that spot today.
