MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 6/22/22

Our model likes Paul Blackburn and the A's tonight against Seattle. Where else should you look for betting value on Tuesday night?

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

St. Louis Moneyline (+102): 1-Star Rating Out of 5

This game is priced as close to a coin flip. The Milwaukee Brewers are slight -120 moneyline favorites over the St. Louis Cardinals, who are +102 to win, but our model likes the Cards.

Eric Lauer is going for the Brew Crew. Lauer looked like a breakout star earlier this season, but he hasn't been able to keep it up. Over his last three starts (17 1/3 innings), his strikeout rate is just 14.3%, and he's been tagged for an eye-popping 3.12 dingers per nine.

He is unlikely to find respite today against a St. Louis offense -- spearheaded by righties Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado -- that holds the sixth-best wOBA against lefties (.334) with the fifth-lowest strikeout rate (18.8%) in the split.

Adam Wainwright gets the ball for the Red Birds. Wainwright has some warts in his profile, with his 3.06 ERA a long way from his 4.25 SIERA. His biggest issue has been a lack of punchouts, but Milwaukee can aid him in that department as they own the seventh-highest strikeout rate against righties (23.7%).

We have St. Louis winning by a score of 4.77-4.23. At their +102 moneyline price, the Cardinals' implied win odds are 49.5%. Our algorithm hands St. Louis win odds of 53.5%. Taking the Cards to win is a one-star bet, according to our numbers.

Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics

Over 7.0 (-128): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Oakland Moneyline (+114): 1-Star Out of 5

Paul Blackburn and George Kirby square off tonight in what is a pretty dang good pitching matchup. As such, the total is listed at just 7.0 runs.

Our model sees that number as too low, and we also spot some value on the underdog Oakland Athletics.

Kirby, a rookie, has been really good since getting the call to The Show. His 3.36 SIERA is a dazzling clip, and he's walking only 2.8% of hitters. However, he's registered just a 22.9% strikeout rate and 10.6% swinging-strike rate, and he's permitted 1.67 homers per nine. While the matchup is a good one, these same A's got to Kirby for four earned runs in five frames earlier this season.

Blackburn has experienced strikeout gains this year, with his strikeout rate jumping to 17.7%. Obviously, that's still an underwhelming number, but it's an improvement over his lowly 14.9% strikeout rate from 2021. It's helped him post a career-best 3.99 SIERA -- a lot of which comes from his superb contact management, including a 50.5% ground-ball rate and 27.2% hard-hit rate.

Like Kirby, Blackburn has a nice matchup in this one, but unlike Kirby, the A's righty thrived in this spot earlier this campaign, holding the Seattle Mariners to one hit over 5 1/3 scoreless innings.

We project a total of 8.54 runs to be scored in this one, so we really like the over. We think the over wins out 58.3% of the time and mark it as a three-star wager.

Our numbers also give Oakland a 51.3% chance to win, creating value on their +114 moneyline price, which implies win odds of just 46.7%.