MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 6/16/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or a moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockies
Over 11.5 (-105) - 2 Stars
With all the high totals across MLB as the weather heats up, Coors Field has been a bit quiet by its standards. That could end today.
There have been only 19 runs in the first two games of this series between the Guardians and Rockies. Regression for both starting pitchers could lead to a high total on a warm day in Denver.
Triston McKenzie is a well-regarded prospect, so his 3.09 ERA might be seen as just taking the next step. However, his 4.22 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) indicates he hasn't been quite that lights out. In fact, a 41.8% hard-hit rate and 10.8% barrel rate is outright terrifying entering a date at Coors.
On the other side, Chad Kuhl has a similar conundrum. His 3.70 ERA is masking a SIERA of nearly five (4.97), and he's had an even higher 44.8% hard-hit rate. The Rox's bullpen is also the fifth-worst in baseball by xFIP (4.32).
Our model sees this contest with at least 12 total runs a sizable 57.5% of the time. Against 52.3% implied odds, that's a two-star wager.
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
Rays +1.5 (-102) - 3 Stars
Our model thinks the Tampa Bay Rays should at least keep this one tight despite a huge deficit on the mound.
The Yankees are tossing out Luis Severino, and that's not great news after Tampa struggled so mightily with Gerrit Cole. However, the Rays will run a bullpen game with Jalen Beeks at the helm. Beeks has not only been excellent (1.38 ERA), but the Tampa Bay bullpen has the sixth-lowest FIP in June (3.16).
An ugly, low-scoring grind could be on tap, yet you can still snag the Rays' runline at -102 (50.5% implied probability).
Our model thinks Tampa Bay keeps this game within a marker 63.1% of the time, and the three-star grade behind the runline is the model's strongest lean of the day.
Of the 20 most similarly-profiled games to this one in numberFire's database, 14 of the road underdogs (representing Tampa Bay) covered the one-run spread.
**Editor's Note: Severino has been scratched on Thursday. Check here for numberFire's model consensus as this line is updated to reflect the change.**
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
Mariners ML (+106) - 1 Star
At just 24 years old, we might not be lining up to back strikeout props on George Kirby quite yet, but the early returns and prospects for him are both tremendous.
As a highly-respected prospect with pinpoint command, Kirby has a 3.40 SIERA in seven starts with the Mariners, and he'll be in for a decent matchup tonight. The Angels are really scuffling against right-handed pitching at the moment. They've posted just a 76 wRC+ and a lofty 29.9% strikeout rate against righties in the month of June.
On the other side, the M's are heating up with a 114 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in June. They'll draw the always-capable Shohei Ohtani, and Ohtani is coming off of a gem against the Red Sox, but he had allowed at least four runs in both prior starts. Ohtani isn't quite at the peak of his powers overall.
Seattle is a +106 home underdog here (48.5% implied probability to win), but our model believes they win 50.8% of the time. The name value of Ohtani on the mound tonight for L.A. is driving that, but the Mariners' budding prospect Kirby actually makes this one a pretty spicy battle.