MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 6/15/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or a moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Over 7.5 (-120) - 4 Stars
Even with the talent of the starting pitchers here, this total is too low for two of the worst 'pens in the sport.
In terms of xFIP, Cincinnati and Arizona have the second and third-worst bullpens in MLB, respectively. Therefore, even if you get a few quality innings out of Luis Castillo and Zac Gallen, anything later could be an adventure. We saw that as all eight runs in Tuesday's game were scored during extra innings.
It's no lock Castillo and Gallen deal, though. Castillo's 3.81 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) is solid, but it's masking a 35.3% hard-hit rate. Gallen has also struggled to a 5.22 xFIP in June, and that's especially suboptimal with the two starts against Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.
These two offenses have also made strides against right-handed pitching. Arizona has posted a 100 wRC+ since May 1st in that split, and the Reds have also mustered a 98 wRC+ in that time.
This four-star bet is numberFire's top bet of the day. It's projecting this game to post at least eight runs 68.6% of the time. Even against elevated 54.5% odds, the value on the over here -- especially at hitter-friendly Chase Field -- is marvelous.
Athletics First Half +0.5 (+110)
It's the sixth-worst bullpen in MLB by xFIP (4.28), and the Red Sox are also pretty sensitive to the handedness of the opposing pitcher. Boston has an average 100 wRC+ against righties -- like starter James Kaprielian. But, that number balloons to a 117 wRC+ against southpaws. A poor one out of Oakland's bullpen could be a nail in the coffin late.
As a result, I'm backing the A's and Kaprielian on their first-five line, which the model doesn't rate. Kaprielian's 4.22 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) in 2021 is enough for me to power through his unsightly 5.00 mark in his 2022 sample. This is, importantly, a fade of Boston's starter, Josh Winckowski.
Winckowski's debut was horrendous. In three innings against lowly Baltimore, he was tagged for a 7.80 FIP, a whopping 72.7% hard-hit rate, and an almost-unfathomable 18.7% barrel rate. The A's may stink against right-handed pitching, but that's a hurler either tipping pitches or with incredibly poor command.
If Kaprielian gets tagged, the one-star bets from numberFire's model likely wouldn't have cashed anyway, so this is a play on avoiding Oakland's sour bullpen to back the sharp side. A tied game also cashes here at +110.
Mets ML (+112) - 1 Star
It might be a quick one at Citi Field in New York tonight.
This game has two dynamics that should limit offense. The Mets are home underdogs facing Corbin Burnes, and there's no doubting the dominant righty and his 2.73 SIERA. However, the Mets are the best team in baseball against right-handed pitching in terms of wRC+ (120), so if there's a club that can muster a couple of runs off him, they're in Queens.
Both of these bullpens are also top-eight ones in terms of xFIP, so there shouldn't be much scoring. As a result, I trust the offense in the better split here as a slight home 'dog, and so does our model.
The model believes the Mets win this game a majority of the time (51.5%), but their +112 moneyline implies just a 47.2% chance to take the victory. It's not a comfortable lean with the reigning NL Cy Young winner on the opposing squad's lineup card, but it's the sharp one.