MLB Betting Guide: Monday 6/13/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or a moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Giants -1.5 (+125) - 2 Stars
Our model is totally cool with laying two runs in San Francisco tonight.
The Giants undoubtedly have the edge at home with Alex Wood on the bump. The Royals have just a 96 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, and Wood (3.25 FIP) has been better than his 4.23 ERA would suggest.
With a 107 wRC+ against right-handers, San Fran has been much better in the split they'll have against Brady Singer. Singer's 4.16 FIP is much higher, and he's failed to reach the sixth inning in back-to-back starts. He'll be giving way to a Kansas City bullpen with the worst xFIP (4.61) in baseball.
For the less daring, our model gives a two-star conviction on the Giants' moneyline (-180), but it also believes they cover this runline 52.1% of the time. That results in a two-star stamp of approval as well against the 44.4% implied odds you'll receive at +125.
I'll take the plus-money juice that S.F. runs away with tonight's contest.
Over 8.5 (-106) - 3 Stars
Two shoddy bullpens could result in a high-scoring series in Arizona.
The Diamondbacks will host three games against the Cincinnati Reds, and these are two of the three worst bullpens in baseball by xFIP. As mentioned, Kansas City is the worst, but here lie the second and third-worst sets of relievers in baseball.
The D-Backs have an obvious matchup to score facing Mike Minor's 10.46 FIP. He's been terrible. However, don't discount the improving Reds' offense getting after Merrill Kelly a bit. Cincinnati had a .714 OPS against right-handers in May, and Kelly scuffled to a mediocre 4.54 FIP -- by his standards -- last month.
All in all, numberFire's model is projecting 10.26 total runs as a median outcome between these two teams on Monday. They see this game passing over the 8.5-run total a whopping 64.9% of the time, and the three-star rating on this bet makes it the best value spot the model sees today.