3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 5/24/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Giancarlo Stanton To Hit a Home Run (+260)
Sometimes it's best to keep things simple.
That's the approach I'm taking with Giancarlo Stanton and his home run prop (+260) tonight because the matchup is very straightforward. He's going up against Bruce Zimmermann, who is allowing a .443 SLG, a 4.61 xFIP, 1.03 HR/9, and a 41.8% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters this season. This is why we see the New York Yankees coming in with a 4.49 implied run total tonight. They have plenty of righty hitters with power, and it's a great matchup for all of them.
That's why I'm keeping it simple with Stanton, who comes in with a 159 wRC+, .233 ISO, .383 wOBA, 38.7% fly-ball rate, and 38.7% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. He's one of the best power hitters in the league, and there's no reason to overthink things.
Sonny Gray Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-102)
Sonny Gray is looking good on the mound and has a favorable matchup tonight.
We're looking at the over 6.5 strikeouts for Gray, who has a good matchup and brings a bit of consistency to the table. Gray started the season slow and then went on the IL with a hamstring issue, but he has turned that all around and is looking great right now. He comes in with a 28.7% strikeout rate on the season, posting 7 strikeouts or more in two of his three starts since returning, and he can continue that tonight.
Gray is taking on the Detroit Tigers, who hold a 24.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the eighth-worst in the league. He's been over 80 pitches in each of his last two starts, a good indication he doesn't have a pitch limit and can start going deeper into games to rack up the strikeouts.
Mike Trout To Record an RBI (+110)
As I've said before, the odds on RBI props continue to intrigue me.
The Los Angeles Angels have a very solid 4.66 implied run total tonight and are taking on Dane Dunning of the Texas Rangers. Dunning has been "good" this year versus right-handed hitters but certainly isn't great. He's holding a 3.39 xFIP, allowing 1.08 HR/9, a .355 SLG, a 20.2% strikeout rate, and an 18.8% HR/FB ratio. It's a mixed bag for Dunning, and I'm willing to attack him with some player props tonight.
We turn to Mike Trout to record an RBI at +110. This is where I'm borderline baffled about RBI props. We have the best hitter in the MLB, and we are getting him at plus money for just one RBI? I get that baseball is very random, and Trout could go a few games without recording an RBI, but it's not as if we're laying any juice with this. It's plus money!
He comes in with a 190 wRC+, .350 ISO, .428 wOBA, 57.4% fly-ball rate, and 36.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Trout is elite, and it's a plus money prop. Not much more needs to be said besides adding Trout 2+ RBIs at +390.