3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 5/18/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. To Hit a Home Run (+385)
Tonight, we look to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for his home run prop.
Vladdy Jr. is one of the elite power hitters in the game, and he has a great matchup to knock one over the fence tonight. He will be up against Marco Gonzales, who is struggling this season with fly balls versus right-handed hitters, as he's been known to do over the last few years. This season, Gonzales is allowing a 42.2% fly-ball rate, 34.9% hard-contact rate, 5.06 xFIP, and 1.71 HR/9 to right-handed hitters.
Guerrero is off to a slower start this year versus left-handed pitchers but finished last season with a 156 wRC+, .247 ISO, 36.1% hard-contact rate, and 30.6% HR/FB ratio. He has great numbers from last year and always has the power to get it done.
Considering how much Gonzales struggles versus righty hitters, I'm also in on George Springer (+315) and Bo Bichette (+430) for home runs tonight.
Lucas Giolito Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Lucas Giolito is an elite pitcher, and we're looking to the over 5.5 strikeouts tonight.
Giolito is set to return from the COVID list and lands with a rather low 5.5 strikeout prop against the Kansas City Royals. Giolito is one of the elite strikeout pitchers in the league and comes in with a 35.2% strikeout rate, which is the highest of his career. Among starting pitchers who have pitched at least 20 innings this season, Giolito's 35.2% strikeout rate is the sixth-highest in the league. He has five starts under his belt this season and has posted six strikeouts or more in four of them.
The Royals have a 21.6% strikeout rate for the season, which is 19th in the league. However, since the start of May, that has risen to a 23.2% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, putting them as the 12th worst team in the league.
Given Giolito's upside, you should consider laddering his alt strikeouts with 7+ strikeouts at +158 and 8+ strikeouts at +300.
Jean Segura To Record a Run (+130)
The Philadelphia Phillies have a good matchup tonight and come in with a 4.12 implied run total.
The San Diego Padres will have Blake Snell on the mound tonight, who is set to make his season debut after a groin injury. Snell is a good pitcher, but considering he hasn't faced MLB hitters since last season, I'm inclined to side with the Phillies' offense tonight.
Jean Segura hits in the middle of the lineup and has been getting on base a ton recently, highlighted by an active 13-game hitting streak. Getting on base is obviously good and the first part of him scoring a run. I know, breaking news over here.
He's carrying a 152 wRC+, a .229 ISO, and a very low 13.5% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. Segura is hot right now and has scored 11 runs in the last 10 games and has also picked up 4 stolen bases in that time.
On base? Check. Getting into scoring position? Check. Add in the fact the Phillies' offense is hot right now, and we are in a spot for Segura to score another run.