MLB Betting Guide: Monday 5/9/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers
Over 7.0 (-112): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
I know offense is down and these two offenses stink, but 7.0 runs is a low line for a game in which Paul Blackburn and Michael Pineda are starting.
At various points in this career, Pineda has displayed some promising traits and metrics. It appears those days might be long gone. In 123 2/3 innings since the start of 2021, Pineda has pitched to a 4.35 SIERA and 18.6% strikeout rate while giving up 1.46 homers per nine. He's got a 14.0% strikeout rate for the Detroit Tigers in the early going of this campaign.
Blackburn has been hot out of the gates for the Oakland Athletics, and there are some reasons -- including an uptick of 1.5 MPH in average fastball velocity -- to think some of the gains are real. But we're dealing with a 2022 sample of 24 1/3 innings. We have a much larger sample that points to Blackburn being a bad hurler, including his 4.88 SIERA and 12.8% strikeout rate in 138 career innings prior to this season.
These offenses are not good, and that's my biggest fear with taking the over. But our model really likes the over as we project 8.93 total runs to be scored in this game (4.62-4.31 in favor of the A's). We think the over wins out 61.6% of the time and rate it as a four-star bet.
Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Moneyline (+102): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Over 8.5 (-122): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
The Miami Marlins and Arizona Diamondbacks play tonight, and the game could actually be fun.
Of the games with a listed total (as of early Monday), this clash is the only one with a total of 7.5 runs, and its over/under is up at 8.5 runs. It's not like these are a pair of top-notch offenses, either, so that tells you what oddsmakers think of starters Elieser Hernandez and Humberto Castellanos.
Hernandez and Castellanos just aren't good. Hernandez has surrendered an eye-popping 2.37 dingers per nine since the start of last year and has permitted 18 earned runs in 24 1/3 frames this season. For Castellanos, since the start of 2021, he's struggled to a 5.03 SIERA and 14.7% strikeout rate.
Our model sees some value in this game on the total and on the Snakes.
We have Arizona winning this game by a score of 5.08-5.04 -- a total of 10.12 runs, which sails past the over. We project the over to hit 63.7% of the time and mark it as a two-star wager. We also give the underdog Diamondbacks a 52.8% chance to win and rate an Arizona moneyline bet as one-star play.