3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 5/4/22

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

C.J. Cron To Hit a Home Run (+320)/Randal Grichuk To Hit a Home Run (+360)

The Colorado Rockies have a great matchup for some home runs tonight.

There are multiple hitters from the Rockies in a great spot for a home run tonight and I can't decide, so we're going with both C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk tonight.

That is due to the fact they are going up against Patrick Corbin, who is a left-handed pitcher and very much worth attacking. Last season, Corbin allowed 2.40 HR/9 to right-handed hitters, along with a 4.66 xFIP, a 33.3% fly-ball rate, and a 36.8% hard-contact rate. This season, those numbers are even worse, granted, dealing with a small sample size to start the season.

Cron finished last season with a 144 wRC+, a .273 ISO, a 44.9% fly-ball rate, and a 33.7% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers.

Grichuk finished last season with a 93 wRC+, a .196 ISO, a 50.9% fly-ball rate, and a 30.7% hard-contact rate.

The stats for both of them are similar enough where they are in play for a home run, and I'm on board with both tonight.

Lucas Giolito Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-120)

Lucas Giolito is an elite pitcher and we're looking to the over on his 6.5 strikeout prop tonight.

Gioliot dealt with a minor abdomen injury earlier in the season but has started two games since returning, posting nine and seven strikeouts in those two starts. His prop sitting at 6.5 is one of my favorites on the slate due to his matchup against the Chicago Cubs, who have a 24.3% strikeout rate versus right-hand pitchers this season (12th-worst in the league).

Giolito is carrying a massive 37.9% strikeout rate this season, which is very high, but he could maintain a rate in the 30-35% range just as he did in 2019 and 2020 (32.3% and 33.7%, respectively).

He looks strong right now and has a great matchup to push his strikeout total high. With that said, a little sprinkle on Giolito's nine-plus strikeouts at +320 is also worth considering.

Christian Yelich To Record an RBI (+135)

The Milwaukee Brewers have a big 4.92 implied run total tonight and could surpass that with an easy matchup.

They are going up against Vladimir Gutierrez from the Cincinnati Reds -- a pitcher we absolutely want to attack tonight. Gutierrez does not have good numbers this season and some may say it's because it's a small sample size, but they are similar to what he posted last year, so we know what we're getting.

This season that would be a 7.42 xFIP, 2.00 HR/9 allowed, a 24.4% walk rate, and a 50.0% fly-ball rate. Those are legitimately some of the worst numbers you can find on this slate, so it's all about the Brewers' lefties tonight.

We turn to Christian Yelich, who only has an 88 wRC+ and .167 ISO versus right-handed pitchers to start the season, but has a strong 45.7% fly-ball rate and a 37.8% hard-contact rate.

The stats will start coming for Yelich with good underlying peripherals, and that could start tonight versus Gutierrez.