3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 4/21/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Luis Robert To Hit a Home Run (+360)
With a solid 4.30 implied run total, the Chicago White Sox are in a spot to push past that today.
Zach Plesac will be on the hill for the Cleveland Guardians, and he finished last season with a 4.46 xFIP and allowed 1.88 HR/9, a 38.7% fly-ball rate, and a 35.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. He also carried a very low 17.7% strikeout rate and really isn't too much of a threat on the mound to hitters. That fly-ball rate can be very dangerous for him, and with a bit of wind blowing out in Cleveland today, it could lead to some easier home runs.
We turn to Luis Robert, who had a 135 wRC+, .179 ISO, 34.9% fly-ball rate, and 33.7% hard-contact rate versus righties last season. In this split specifically, he's a bit borderline of where I'd normally look, but this is a plus match with Plesac, and the wind is a little boost I'm willing to take a shot with.
Jordan Montgomery Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-112)
A favorable matchup has the over on Jordan Montgomery's strikeout prop worth considering today.
At 4.5 strikeouts, Montgomery's prop is very reasonable today, and the Detroit Tigers are certainly a matchup worth attacking. Last season, the Tigers' active roster had a 23.2% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which was the 13th worst in the league. To start this season in a small sample size, the Tigers have a 28.1% strikeout rate versus lefties, which is the fourth-worst in the league.
Montgomery carried a 24.5% strikeout rate last season and was able to reach five strikeouts or more in six of his last 10 starts. I also have some interest in reaching for his Alt line of 6+ strikeouts (+190), given how much the Tigers are striking out to begin this season.
Salvador Perez 2+ Total Bases (+105)
Salvador Perez has a plus money player prop worth looking at today.
The Kansas City Royals have a modest 3.85 implied run total today and are going up against Joe Ryan of the Minnesota Twins. Ryan made his MLB debut last season and combined with this year, has a total of 36.2 innings pitched, which is very small in the grand scheme of things. Ryan has flashed some good things with a 38.9% strikeout rate versus righties in this short time but also had a 41.5% fly-ball rate. He might have potential going forward, but ultimately, he's still a young and unproven pitcher.
This is where I generally always side with a proven, veteran hitter such as Perez. We're getting plus money on a hitter who had a 115 wRC+, .246 ISO, and 39.3% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers last season. I'm siding with Perez and his consistency over 36.2 innings from Ryan.