3 Daily Fantasy Baseball Stacks for Thursday 4/21/22
Stacks are an integral part of daily fantasy baseball. They can push a team to the top of a GPP by driving upside. However, they're also viable in cash games, namely smaller (two-person or three-person) stacks that mitigate the volatility of a full four-person stack.
This article is your home throughout the 2022 Major League Baseball season for the day's top stacks. The primary goal is to identify the highest-scoring upside stack. Still, game theory will play a role in contrarian stacks making the cut as GPP options. Nevertheless, chalky stacks will make appearances in this space, too.
Beyond my analysis in this space, I strongly suggest numberFire premium members using our DFS Sharpstack tool and hitting heat map tool. The DFS Sharpstack helps plug stacks into optimized lineups, allowing you to change parameters and lock or exclude players and teams. Meanwhile, the heat map offers a one-stop-shop for the opposing starting pitcher, implied total, park factor, and other notable goodies.
Now, let's look at the top stacks on today's main slate that starts on FanDuel at 1:10 pm ET.
I don't recall if I've said this already this year, but you have to have a short memory in daily fantasy baseball. I'll repeat this throughout the season. On that note, the Minnesota Twins were blanked in a dreamy matchup last night. Thankfully, there's a quick turnaround with an afternoon game and another favorable pitching matchup.
At first blush, Zack Greinke's 2.45 ERA through two starts suggests the 38-year-old has sipped from the fountain of youth. However, a peek under the hood isn't as kind to the veteran hurler. According to FanGraphs, he has a 6.96 Expected ERA (xERA) and 5.70 Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA). Additionally, Greinke has struck out just one of 43 batters faced and carries an ugly 4.1 percent swinging-strike rate -- considerably lower than this year's league average (11.4 percent). Pitching to contact at Greinke's rate isn't a sustainable formula for success.
So, I'm hopping back on Minnesota's bandwagon tonight. Sadly, Byron Buxton ($3,700) hasn't returned from the knee injury he suffered last Friday. However, he hasn't been placed on the Injured List, either, and I'll roll the dice on him in GPPs if he's back on the diamond today.
Others I love for this stack include Jorge Polanco ($3,300), Carlos Correa ($3,100), and Luis Arraez ($2,800). Against righties since 2019, Polanco has a .203 Isolated Power (ISO), and Correa has had a .227 ISO. As a result, they have the requisite power to make Greinke pay for pitching to contact.
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees draw Michael Pineda today. Unfortunately, Pineda's spring training buildup was delayed by work visa issues. The late start necessitated a stop at Triple-A to open the year to continue stretching out. The 33-year-old righty had a 5.68 ERA, 6.04 Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP), a 14.3 percent strikeout rate, and allowed a tater in two starts spanning 6 and 1/3 innings. The sample was admittedly small, but it doesn't scream that he's ready to handle the Bronx Bombers.
Further, Pineda grossly outperformed his ERA estimators in 2021, with a 4.92 xERA and 4.36 SIERA versus a 3.62 ERA. Pineda also coughed up 1.40 homers per nine innings. When Pineda hands the ball over to the bullpen, I don't expect them to put out any fires. Detroit's relievers have had the third-highest xFIP (4.50) in 2022. So, I don't buy into their 2.85 ERA.
My favorite option from the Yankees is Anthony Rizzo ($3,500). The veteran first baseman has hit four homers, stolen two bases, walked eight times, struck out only seven times, and compiled a .359 ISO, .412 OBP, and 192 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) through his first 51 plate appearances this season.
Since Pineda struggled with the long ball last year, my other favorite stacking options are power-packed. Specifically, I like Giancarlo Stanton ($3,700), Aaron Judge ($3,600), Josh Donaldson ($3,200), and Joey Gallo ($2,600). The lowest ISO of the quartet against righties since 2019 has been Donaldson's .232 ISO. Thus, the four hitters have top-shelf power.
New York Mets
The New York Mets make it a Big Apple double-dip for stacking love this afternoon. Anthony DeSclafani was a successful reclamation story with the San Francisco Giants last year. Unfortunately, he hasn't been as impressive in two starts this year, recording a 4.32 ERA and 4.45 xERA in 8 and 2/3 innings. Obviously, we're talking about a tiny sample, but he's serving up plenty of hard contact with a 42.9 percent hard-hit rate and 91.4 MPH average exit velocity, per FanGraphs.
DeSclafani has also had a dip in velocity that might be a cause for concern. He averaged 94.1 MPH with his heater, but that's down to only 92.3 MPH this year. Maybe it's an early-season blip on the radar, but the Mets would be a challenging matchup even if DeSclafani was pitching well.
New York's hitters on their active roster have mostly terrorized right-handed pitchers since 2019. Namely, five hitters who regularly play against righties have had at least a 128 wRC+ in the split. As a result, the Mets are stackable throughout their lineup.
Still, the two hitters I'll pound the table loudest for are Pete Alonso ($4,100) and Brandon Nimmo ($3,600). Alonso has crushed righties for a .276 ISO and 138 wRC+. And since 2019, Nimmo has had a .388 OBP and 134 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. Both are lighting up righties out of the gate this season.
Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.