3 Daily Fantasy Baseball Stacks for Monday 4/11/22
Stacks are an integral part of daily fantasy baseball. They can push a team to the top of a GPP by driving upside. However, they're also viable in cash games, namely smaller (two-person or three-person) stacks that mitigate the volatility of a full four-person stack.
This article is your home throughout the 2022 Major League Baseball season for the day's top stacks. The primary goal is to identify the highest-scoring upside stack. Still, game theory will play a role in contrarian stacks making the cut as GPP options. Nevertheless, chalky stacks will make appearances in this space, too.
Beyond my analysis in this space, I strongly suggest numberFire premium members using our DFS Sharpstack tool and hitting heat map tool. The DFS Sharpstack helps plug stacks into optimized lineups, allowing you to change parameters and lock or exclude players and teams. Meanwhile, the heat map offers a one-stop-shop for the opposing starting pitcher, implied total, park factor, and other notable goodies.
Now, let's look at the top stacks on today's main slate that starts on FanDuel at 6:40 pm ET.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays face a good starting pitcher tonight. Jameson Taillon isn't a pushover. Still, he's not a dominant front-of-the-rotation pitcher, either. Most interestingly, according to FanGraphs, Taillon had a career-low 33.2 percent groundball rate and a career-high 1.50 homers per nine innings (HR/9) allowed in 2021.
Taillon's low groundball rate could nip him in the behind at his homer-friendly home ballpark against the Blue Jays tonight. According to FantasyPros, Yankee Stadium has a park factor of 1.044 for homers, using their three-year average. Thankfully, Toronto's lineup is equipped with the thump to take advantage of the matchup and venue.
Since 2019, five players on the Blue Jays have had an Isolated Power (ISO) above .205 against right-handed pitchers. Not shockingly, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4,500) is my favorite option. In a breakout 2021 season, Vladito hit 37 homers with a .400 on-base percentage (OBP), .303 ISO, and 169 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) in 525 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers.
In addition, I love George Springer ($3,700), Bo Bichette ($4,300), and Teoscar Hernandez ($3,800). Beyond the high-salary superstars, Lourdes Gurriel ($3,100) is a standout pick. He has had a .206 ISO and 116 wRC+ against righties since 2019.
Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners have a drool-inducing matchup against Dylan Bundy tonight.
Simply, there isn't a way to paint Bundy's 2021 as anything other than a dumpster fire. In 90 2/3 innings, he had a 6.06 ERA, 4.79 Expected ERA (xERA), and 4.56 Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA), and he coughed up 1.99 homers per nine innings.
Additionally, Bundy was beaten up by lefties and righties alike. He allowed a .323 weighted on-base average (wOBA) to lefties and was creamed for a .527 slugging and .365 wOBA by right-handed batters. Bundy's inability to tame lefties or righties elevates Seattle's lineup's odds of laying the wood to him tonight.
Further, the spring training stuff grades tracked by Twitter user Pitching_Bot don't inspire confidence about a change of scenery fixing Bundy.
I don't dissuade gamers from using the best and most established hitters from the top of the order, such as Adam Frazier ($2,400), Jesse Winker ($3,300), Mitch Haniger ($3,200), and Ty France ($2,700).
However, I like the concept of swerving in GPPs and picking Jarred Kelenic ($2,900), Eugenio Suarez ($2,900), and Julio Rodriguez ($2,600). The trio has gotten off to a slow start, but all three have above-average power.
Last year, Kelenic had a .304 ISO in Triple-A and a .276 ISO in September. Suarez had a largely awful 2021, but he finished strong. The slugging third baseman had a .438 ISO and eight homers in his last 87 plate appearances last year with glowing Statcast batted-ball data.
Finally, Rodriguez is one of the top prospects in the game. He had an excellent spring on the heels of posting a 173 wRC+ in 206 plate appearances in Double-A.
Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins might be chalky. Nonetheless, I love them tonight and don't think the percentage of rosters they're on will be completely out of control on a seven-game slate with viable alternatives. Minnesota's matchup tonight is better than initially meets the eye.
Chris Flexen's 2021 season was unquestionably a successful return from the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO). However, his 3.61 ERA wasn't supported by his ERA estimators. For instance, he had a 4.27 xERA and 4.70 SIERA. Further, Flexen's most stand-out positive statistic on his 2021 profile was his 5.4 percent walk rate. The righty struck out only 16.9 percent of the hitters he faced, and his 42.4 percent ground ball rate was ho-hum.
Thus, his pitch-to-contact approach is dangerous in this particular matchup. Minnesota's lineup is jam-packed with power.
Since 2019, six of the hitters that are likely to be in tonight's lineup have had an ISO above .200 against righties. Moreover, five of them have had at least a .230 ISO, starting with Carlos Correa ($3,400) and followed by Gary Sanchez ($2,500), Max Kepler ($2,600), Miguel Sano ($2,200), and Byron Buxton ($3,700) with marks of .230, .246, .262, .303, and .313, respectively.
Beyond the power-hitters above, I also like Luis Arraez ($2,400) as a bargain option, and Jorge Polanco ($3,300) isn't a slouch with a .201 ISO against right-handed pitchers since 2019. I'm excited to stack the Twins tonight.
Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
