MLB Betting Guide: Friday 9/24/21

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline or moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers

Over 8.0 (-108): 3-Star Rating Out of 5

We're getting a pitching matchup of Eric Lauer against Tylor Megill in this New York Mets-Milwaukee Brewers contest.

The Mets' offense can do some damage against Lauer, who has been fairly solid this year but has allowed a 38.1% hard-ball rate and 44.5% fly-ball rate to righties. That's led to 1.40 dingers per nine in the split, and it could get him in trouble today against the likes of Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Javier Baez.

As for Megill, his 26.6% strikeout rate and 12.3% swinging-strike rate are promising marks, but the long ball has been an issue for him. He's permitting a 41.4% fly-ball rate overall and surrendering 1.79 homers per nine. Lefties have been the biggest problem as they've tagged him for a .413 wOBA, 39.1% hard-hit rate, 53.2% fly-ball rate, and 2.78 home runs per nine. Geesh.

Our numbers project a 5.23-4.45 win for Milwaukee, and we forecast Megill to give up 1.15 homers, the most of the night. That points to the over, which we have winning out 60.0% of the time and rate as a two-star bet.

San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies

Over 12.0 (-106): 2-Star Rating Out of 5

Our model is expecting a Coors special tonight as we project the San Francisco Giants to beat the Colorado Rockies by a score of 7.43-5.50.

Let's start with the Giants' offense in their matchup with Peter Lambert. This will be Lambert's first start since 2019, and, man, this is a rough spot. Not only is he at Coors, but he's facing a San Fran offense that has been among the league's best all season. When we last saw Lambert, he wasn't very good, pitching to a 5.51 SIERA in 89 1/3 MLB innings in 2019. The Giants should torch him and do the heavy lifting to get us to 13 runs.

The Rockies have a little tougher draw against Alex Wood, but it's one the Rox can succeed in. Colorado is second in home wOBA (.350) this year -- shocker -- and they are sixth in wOBA (.336) against lefties. After a mediocre first half, the Rockies' offense sits seventh in second-half wOBA (.329), and while Wood has been good this year, we just saw Coors tame Walker Buehler and Max Scherzer on back-to-back days.

Our numbers have the over hitting at a rate of 54.0% and mark it as a two-star wager.