MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 8/18/21

The Yankees and Red Sox battle tonight in a game that will elevate the winner into second place in the AL East. Which bets does our model like?

Which MLB games offer betting value on Soccer odd? Let's see where we can zero in.

Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.

Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals +1.5 (-115): 1 Star out of 5

This starting pitching matchup looks like a mismatch based on ERA, as Zack Greinke has a 3.51 ERA compared to 5.42 for Brady Singer. However, Greinke has an xERA of 4.10 and Singer has an xERA of 4.31, so the gap is minuscule once we switch over to the underlying numbers.

The Houston Astros are a much better hitting team than the Kansas City Royals, as the Astros lead the league in runs per game with 5.33, while the Royals average only 4.09. While this is a huge gap in offensive production, it still is not enough to make up for the runline of 1.5, and our model gives the Royals a 53.53% likelihood to cover the spread.

Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers +1.5 (-115): 2 Stars out of 5

The Texas Rangers find themselves over 20 games behind the Mariners in the standings but they are a somewhat decent home team at 28-32, compared to a 27-31 away record for Seattle Mariners. Based on these numbers, having home field tonight should bode well for Texas and help make this game close to a toss-up.

The pitching matchup features Marco Gonzales against Mike Foltynewicz. Gonzales has an xERA of 5.83 this season compared to a 5.42 xERA for Foltynewicz, so the Rangers may even have an advantage tonight in terms of pitching.

Our model likes the Rangers to cover, giving them a 58.55% chance to do so and making this a 2-Star bet.

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

New York Yankees +1.5 (+152): 1 Star out of 5

The New York Yankees have really changed their trajectory this season in recent weeks and they are currently on a five-game winning streak that put them even with the Boston Red Sox in the standings, including a two game sweep of a doubleheader on Tuesday.

The Yankees are 15-4 in their last 19 games, while the Red Sox are just 6-13 in their last 19. The pitching matchup is not bad for the Yankees, as Andrew Heaney has an xERA of 4.05 on the season, compared to 3.80 for Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta.

Our model only gives the Yankees a 40.10% chance to cover but that is good enough to make this a 1-Star bet given the plus odds.