Under-the-Radar MLB FanDuel Plays for Monday 8/9/21
When being contrarian in daily fantasy sports, there's a fine line between taking a calculated risk and being reckless. But differentiating your lineups from everyone else's is the name of the game if you plan on taking down one of those highly lucrative DFS tournaments. Whether it's because of bookmaker totals, other options at a given position, or some gem you've found who everyone is overlooking, we can always find potential under-rostered plays if we look hard enough.
Here are three such players to consider branching out for on FanDuel's main slate.
Max Kepler, OF, Minnesota Twins ($3,500)
Can we turn to the Minnesota Twins in tournaments tonight?
The Twins have a 4.07 implied run total tonight, which is the third-lowest on the slate and should make them a team that goes under the radar. This shouldn't be a surprise since they are going up against Lucas Giolito, who is the second-most expensive pitcher on the slate. Giolito's 41.9% fly-ball rate against left-handed hitters can be a bit concerning at times and ultimately something that presents some clear upside for the Twins' lefty hitters. While I'm not looking to fully stack the Twins, targeting them for a one-off could be the play.
Max Kepler could be the answer with his strong .246 ISO, 43.8% fly-ball rate, and 43.1% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. If Kepler is going to hit a home run, it's probably going to come against a righty, as 12 of his 14 homers have been against them this season.
Ian Happ, 2B/OF, Chicago Cubs ($2,700)
If the game at Wrigley Field plays tonight, we could be in for plenty of home runs.
The Chicago Cubs are hosting the Milwaukee Brewers tonight and we should be in for rain but also plenty of wind blowing out. This is a bit of a wait-and-see due to the rain but that amount of wind blowing out at Wrigley Field provides a strong boost to the hitters. This means we should be targeting hitters in this game for some easy home run upside, especially if they aren't going to be popular.
There's no doubt Freddy Peralta is a great pitcher this season with his 29.1% strikeout rate versus left-handed hitters this season, but what's not great is the fact he allowing a 53.7% fly-ball rate. Despite all of those fly balls allowed, Peralta has an 8.2% HR/FB ratio. That is far below the league average and could suggest he is due for a bit of regression. Maybe the extra wind at Wrigley tonight could be a bit of a turning point?
This means we can target Ian Happ, who has a .237 ISO, a 115 wRC+, a 37.7%, and a 24.3% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers. Peralta is a better pitcher than Happ is a hitter but the wind could prove to be too much to overcome tonight.