MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 7/28/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing
New York Yankees +1.5 (-178): 2 Stars out of 5
This game features an interesting pitching matchup as Michael Wacha squares off with Nestor Cortes. Wacha is having a difficult time this season, posting a 5.16 ERA and 6.07 xERA in 66.1 innings pitched. He is coming off a season last year where he posted a 6.62 ERA in 34 innings, so, unfortunately, his career seems to be on the downswing.
The New York Yankees are starting Nestor Cortes Jr. in this game. Cortes has mostly been used as a reliever but did throw 74 pitches in 4.2 innings in a start in early July. The right-hander has been fantastic for the Yankees in 27.2 innings this season, posting a 1.95 ERA and 2.25 FIP.
The Yankees have a favorable pitching matchup and they should be able to cover this runline. Our model gives them a 69.18% chance to do so and that makes this a 2-Star betting opportunity.
Chicago White Sox -1.5 (-108): 1 Star out of 5
The Chicago White Sox are leading their division by 9.5 games and are having an amazing season. This matchup projects well for them, as Lucas Giolito gets the start. Giolito owns a 3.42 xERA this season and he finished each of the last two seasons in the top-seven in the Cy Young voting.
Giolito faces Kris Bubic of the Kansas City Royals who has an xERA of 5.80, so the White Sox have a huge advantage in the starting pitching matchup. Chicago has also been the much better team offensively, averaging 4.97 runs per game compared to 4.19 runs per game for the Royals.
Our model likes the White Sox to cover here, giving them a 53.06% chance to do so.
San Francisco +1.5 (-146): 2 Stars out of 5
The San Francisco Giants face the Los Angeles Dodgers in a huge NL West matchup with the Dodgers trailing the Giants by three games in the divisional race. The Giants have been a fantastic home team this season (32-15), while the Dodgers are 28-23 on the road, so being on their home field could provide the Giants with a nice advantage.
The pitching matchup slightly favors the Dodgers, though both Giants starter Anthony DeSclafani and Dodgers starter Walker Buehler have had fantastic starts to the season. DeSclafani has an xERA of 3.68 compared to 3.08 for Buehler, so they have both been rock-solid.
Our model gives the Giants a 64.52% chance to cover the spread, making this a 2-star bet.