MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 7/22/21

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies

Over 8.5 (-102): 2-Star Rating Out of 5

We have just eight games tonight, and our model doesn't see much betting value. We give only two bets more than one star, and this is one of them.

The pitching matchup in the Atlanta Braves-Philadelphia Phillies clash pits Charlie Morton against Matt Moore, and as you'd expect given the matchups, we have the Braves' offense doing a lot of the heavy lifting to get us to the over.

Across 36 innings this season, Moore has pitched to a 4.92 SIERA, 19.9% strikeout rate, and 10.2% walk rate. The SIERA is a career-worst clip for Moore, and he's also permitting a career-high 1.75 dingers per nine innings. On top of that, Moore hasn't gone more than five innings in any start this season, so we should see a lot of a Phillies 'pen that is likely pretty spent after yesterday's bullpen game against the New York Yankees. All in all, we project Atlanta to plate 5.63 runs.

As for Morton, he's having another really good season, sporting a 3.64 SIERA and 27.7% strikeout rate. Philadelphia's offense certainly has the tougher matchup, but the Phils are swinging it well of late, posting a .340 wOBA over the last 14 days. And we don't need too much from them if the Braves' offense does their part. We have Philly producing 4.34 runs.

We forecast a total of 9.97 runs to be scored in this one and see the over hitting 62.4% of the time.

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox

Yankees +1.5 (-172): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Yankees Moneyline +116: 1-Star Rating Out of 5

The Yankees are heating up, winning four in a row, and they offer some betting value tonight in their series opener versus the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park.

New York will send Jordan Montgomery to the hill, and he's got some solid numbers so far in 2021. In 99 frames, he owns a 4.07 SIERA and 24.1% strikeout rate. Two of his last four starts have come against Boston, and Montgomery has conceded three runs in six innings in each outing.

Tanner Houck is the probable starter for the Red Sox. Houck has just 30 1/3 MLB innings to his name, but he's shown plenty of promise, carrying a 3.58 SIERA and 30.3% strikeout rate into this one. In 21 Triple-A innings this year, he recorded a 28.9% strikeout rate. The issue for Houck is walks, as he's posted a double-digit walk rate in three minor league stops and holds a 9.2% walk rate in his brief MLB sample. That could be a big problem against a Yankees offense that leads baseball in walk rate (10.8%).

Our model sees this as basically a 50-50 game, giving the Yankees a 50.2% chance to win it. With New York a 1.5-run 'dog (-172), we have them covering 67.7% of the time, but if you want a shot at a better return, you can take the Pinstripes at +116 to win outright.