FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Saturday 6/12/21
The beauty of daily fantasy baseball is that the top targets are different each and every day. Whether it's the right-handed catcher who destroys left-handed pitching or the mid-range hurler facing a depleted lineup, you're not going to find yourself using the same assets time after time.
While this breaks up the monotony, it can make it hard to decide which players are primed to succeed on a given day. We can help bridge that gap.
In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy-looking team to put up some big point totals.
If you need help getting started on that trek, here are some of the top options on the board today. We'll be focusing exclusively on the main slate, which starts at 4:05 p.m. EST.
We have a clear top two on this slate: Corbin Burnes ($12,000 on FanDuel) and Trevor Bauer ($11,000). Each has a fantastic home matchup -- Bauer gets the Texas Rangers while Burnes will see the Pittsburgh Pirates -- and the vast majority of my lineups will have one of these two in the pitcher slot.
Even without factoring in the $1,000 salary difference, I prefer Bauer. He brings a 3.34 SIERA, 32.0% strikeout rate and 12.4% swinging-strike rate into the date with Texas. Bauer has thrown at least 100 pitches in five of his past six starts, with three games of 113-plus pitches in that span. That's huge. The matchup with Texas only raises his ceiling as the Rangers boast the third-highest strikeout rate (26.8%) and ninth-worst wOBA (.295) versus righties.
Burnes has better rate stats than Bauer, dominating to the tune of a 42.2% strikeout rate, 18.5% swinging-strike rate and 3.1% walk rate -- leading to a dazzling 1.81 SIERA. But his matchup isn't as great for strikeouts, and Burnes doesn't have the elite workload Bauer does. The Milwaukee Brewers' righty has gone more than 95 pitches only once this season (Bauer has 11 times), and while the Pirates' offense isn't good, Pittsburgh owns the seventh-lowest strikeout rate against right-handers (22.7%).
If you lean Burnes over Bauer, I'm not going to push back much. Both are excellent plays, and they're well clear of the rest of this slate's hurlers.
After those two, Joe Musgrove ($8,300) catches my eye because he's at least shown upside that can rival Burnes' and Bauer's. While he's got four outings of at least 54 FanDuel points, he hasn't thrown more than five innings in any of his last three outings. At home against a short-handed New York Mets lineup, Musgrove is our model's number-three arm, and the salary discount he offers off the big two is pretty signifcant. I'm just not sure I can pass on the floor/upside combination Bauer and Burnes offer.
Stacks to Target
I plugged the Brewers yesterday, and they did fairly well with seven runs. I was into them because they were in a nice matchup and their salaries paired well with last night's bevy of aces. Well, all that holds true again today. The Brew Crew have a 4.97 implied total versus Chad Kuhl, and Milwaukee has only one hitter above $2,700, making them an ideal fit alongside Burnes or Bauer.
After being a pretty miserable offense for much of the early part of the campaign, the Brewers have picked things up in a big way, sitting sixth in wOBA in June (.345).
Their one high-salary stick is Christian Yelich ($3,800), who had 19.2 FanDuel points last night and is carrying a .358 wOBA this year with the platoon advantage along with a .356 wOBA in the month of June.
Dan Vogelbach ($2,600) and Omar Narvaez ($2,200) are superb low-salary plays who will have the platoon advantage. Navarez has mashed against righties, registering a .416 wOBA in the split in 2021. Vogelbach holds a .344 wOBA against right-handed pitching and might be slotted second in the lineup.
Luis Urias ($2,700) is projected to lead off and has a 39.2% hard-hit rate this year. Willy Adames ($2,200) has a 48.0% hard-hit rate and .375 wOBA since coming to the Brewers. Jackie Bradley ($2,000) is a fine minimum-salary dart throw who totaled 16.0 FanDuel points last night.
Chicago White Sox
As of Saturday morning, the Chicago White Sox have the slate's best implied total (5.23) for their home bout with Jose Urena. The owner of a 5.08 SIERA and 14.0% strikeout rate, Urena is a guy we've stacked against a lot in the past.
The Pale Hose are pretty modestly salaried across the board, and we can target lefties and righties. Urena has a 7.5% strikeout rate -- not a typo -- against left-handed hitters this season while permitting a 40.7% hard-hit rate to righties.
Tim Anderson ($3,600), Jose Abreu ($3,300), Yoan Moncada ($3,100) and Yermin Mercedes ($2,600) might be in the first four spots in the lineup, and they don't break the bank. Adam Eaton ($2,900) is much better against righties, and Yasmani Grandal ($3,000) boasts a 44.8% hard-hit rate and 41.4% fly-ball rate in the split.
Jake Lamb ($2,200) would be a fun low-salary option if he gets in the lineup. He's put up a .350 wOBA versus right-handers this season.
New York Yankees
Vincent Velasquez is a little scary to stack against because he's got a 27.5% strikeout rate. That's not ideal. But VV's big bugaboos are walks and right-handed hitters, and that could get him into a lot of trouble today versus the New York Yankees.
Velasquez has a 13.8% walk rate in 2021, and the Yanks have the third-highest walk rate (10.4%). Right-handed hitters have been particularly troublesome for VV, racking up a 47.1% fly-ball rate and 2.30 dingers per nine off him this campaign. New York is extremely right-handed right now, with each of their eight highest-salaried bats swinging from that side of the plate.
Aaron Judge ($4,100) and Giancarlo Stanton ($3,800) offer huge upside if you have the coin to get to them. Gleyber Torres ($3,000) is heating up with a .424 wOBA in June, and DJ LeMahieu ($3,000) should be atop the order. Gary Sanchez ($2,800) has a 50.0% hard-hit rate this month.
Lefty Chris Gittens ($2,100) could run into one. He hit four taters in 74 Triple-A plate appearances this year and amassed a .468 wOBA.