FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Thursday 6/10/21
The beauty of daily fantasy baseball is that the top targets are different each and every day. Whether it's the right-handed catcher who destroys left-handed pitching or the mid-range hurler facing a depleted lineup, you're not going to find yourself using the same assets time after time.
While this breaks up the monotony, it can make it hard to decide which players are primed to succeed on a given day. We can help bridge that gap.
In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy-looking team to put up some big point totals.
If you need help getting started on that trek, here are some of the top options on the board today. We'll be focusing exclusively on the main slate, which starts at 7:05 p.m. EST.
There are two standout hurlers on this slate -- Max Scherzer ($11,000 on FanDuel) and Trevor Rogers ($10,100). Rogers has the edge for me due to an easier matchup and the $900 salary discount, although Scherzer is a great option, as well.
Rogers is at home against the Colorado Rockies, which is about as good as a matchup can get. The Rox sport a league-worst (by 21 points) .253 wOBA on the road along with the fourth-highest strikeout rate in the split (27.1%). Colorado's 3.10 implied total is a slate-low mark. And this isn't all matchup-based. Rogers has been a monster in 2021, pitching to a 3.55 SIERA, 29.7% strikeout rate, and 14.6% swinging-strike rate.
Scherzer, meanwhile, is at home against the San Francisco Giants. While San Fran's 3.17 implied total is about as low as Colorado's, the Giants are a much better offense, ranking eighth in wOBA (.322). They do, however, carry the seventh-highest strikeout rate (25.7%), so Scherzer -- who owns a 36.1% strikeout rate and 16.7% swinging-strike rate -- has plenty of strikeout upside, per usual.
Like I said, Scherzer and Rogers are both quality plays; you can make an easy case for either. I lean toward Rogers due to the matchup and salary difference. My hunch is the masses will likely do the same, so Scherzer could be a stellar leverage play in tournaments -- not that he still won't see a fairly high draft percentage.
I won't venture from those two very often, but if I do, it'll be for Frankie Montas ($7,400). Most of the time when we spend down at pitcher, we're sacrificing some floor and ceiling, so when I do it, I want a pitcher who gives me significant salary savings while still offering a ceiling that can get close to the slate's studs. Montas does both of those things in a home date with the Kansas City Royals.
Montas has a 4.04 SIERA, 22.9% strikeout rate. and 12.0% swinging-strike rate this season. While the swinging-strike rate is his best mark across the last three years, the strikeout rate is actually his lowest in that span, so he's due for some positive regression in that department. Over his career, he's got a .363 xFIP and 25.2% strikeout rate at home, compared to a 4.64 xFIP and 20.9% strikeout rate on the road, and Montas has thrown at least 98 pitches in three of his last four outings, with the exception being a Coors start, and KC is 22nd in wOBA (.302).
Stacks to Target
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees are shaping up as the night's chalk stack. They're in a superb spot on the road versus J.A. Happ, and the Yanks' 5.52 implied total is a slate-best mark by a touch more than half a run.
Outside of Aaron Judge ($4,300), the Bronx Bombers aren't that expensive. Of course, if you can jam in Judge, go for it as he is coming off a May in which he recorded a laughable 60.0% hard-hit rate and has a 55.1% hard-hit rate against lefties for the campaign.
The combination of last night's double-dong and a fairly modest salary should make Giancarlo Stanton ($3,600) one of the night's most popular bats. He put up a 55.6% hard-hit rate against lefties last year. Gleyber Torres ($3,400) is emerging out of his slow start with a .407 wOBA in June's small sample, and while DJ LeMahieu ($3,000) is slumping, he'll likely hit leadoff and pummeled lefties in 2020 to the tune of a .432 wOBA and 52.6% hard-hit rate.
Toronto Blue Jays
Dallas Keuchel is a fine real-life pitcher who has had a nice career, but he's great to pick on in DFS for one reason -- he doesn't get punchouts. Keuchel holds a meager 12.0% strikeout rate this season, and he's striking out just 10.9% of right-handed hitters while allowing 1.33 dingers per nine in the split. That could get him in trouble today against the Toronto Blue Jays, who have a 4.57 implied total.
Randal Grichuk ($2,700), Teoscar Hernandez ($3,000), Marcus Semien ($3,300), and Lourdes Gurriel ($2,500) will be hitting from the right side. Grichuk has 13 taters overall this year and a .451 wOBA against lefties. Hernandez owns a .488 wOBA in the split. Semien will probably be atop the lineup while Gurriel has a .363 wOBA so far in June.
Since the high-salaried Rogers and Scherzer will be priorities, let's look at a more economical stack while also trying to get a bit contrarian.
The Miami Marlins are at home against Chi Chi Gonzalez. It's a great matchup, but Miami's meh 4.40 implied total should keep them from being a go-to stack. Gonzalez has struggled mightily in his MLB career (5.56 SIERA), and that's no different this season as he brings a 5.22 SIERA and 12.3% strikeout rate into this matchup. Geesh.
Other than Starling Marte ($4,200), no Miami hitter is more than $3,600. Jesus Aguilar ($3,600) and Jazz Chisholm ($3,300) are great core pieces to a Marlins stack. Aguilar is having a big year with 12 homers and is stinging the ball this month, posting a 40.6% hard-hit rate and 53.1% fly-ball rate in June. Chisholm has seven jacks and nine steals in 2021.
Corey Dickerson ($2,400), Isan Diaz ($2,300), and Adam Duvall ($2,700) are all listed at easy-to-stomach salaries. Dickerson will have the platoon advantage and likely a meaty spot in the lineup. Diaz is also a lefty, and he blasted 26 homers in Triple-A in 2019, although that power has yet to translate to the bigs. Duvall has a 53.7% fly-ball rate and 10 home runs.