3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 5/10/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Martin Perez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+116)
Martin Perez appears to be an out-of-left-field prop, but the +116 number is at least worth taking a look at on Monday night versus the Baltimore Orioles.
The lefty has been striking out more batters of late with 13 punchouts in his last two starts. When he gets eight or more swinging strikes, the lefty seems to have better control. In those four starts, Perez has two or fewer walks and a K/9 rate of greater than 9 in each of those outings. Overall, his strikeout percentage has spiked to 21.4% which is at MLB average.
The idea is if Perez can get to around 90 pitches and not get too wild, then he should be able to strike out five or more Baltimore batters in the chill of Camden Yards.
Rafael Devers to Hit a Home Run (+350)
The Boston third baseman has already knocked eight balls out of the park across the Majors. He is getting +350 odds to jack at least one more out on Monday night.
So far in 2021, Devers is hitting .288 and slugging at a career-best .576. His career average slugging percentage is .504. His AB/HR rate is below 15 for the first time in his career. It may be a sign of growing into more of a power hitter. Most forget that Devers is only in his mid-20's.
Seven of Devers' eight home runs have come against right-handed pitching, and his matchup is a good one against Jorge Lopez. His current projection is for 0.20 homers, and that is sixth among all third basemen on Monday night. If there is a multiple hits prop, that might be worth a peek, as well.
Alex Wood Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+100)
The over for Alex Wood tonight is at 6.5 strikeouts at even money. If the number dips into negative territory then pass. It may go up to +105 or even +110 possibly.
Wood is several years removed from an incredible 16-win season and a top-10 result in Cy Young voting. Guess what? Through four starts, it appears that Wood has found some of that form once again. He is 3-0 with a K/9 rate that is beginning to approach nine again. His WHIP is a career-low 0.783 through a month. He started out 2017 that way, as well.
The one risk with Wood is can he go seven innings or so? Though he has hit the over twice in four starts, he has only gone seven innings once. The good thing is the San Francisco Giants' pitcher is home tonight in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. His opponent, the Texas Rangers, strikes out at a rate of 26.3% (above the league average of 24%), and that number jumps to nearly 29% on the road.
Our model projects Wood for only 5.73 strikeouts while pitching fewer than six innings versus Texas. But take the over already, as Wood could get to seven innings or very close.
