5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Tuesday 4/27/21
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Ian Anderson, SP, Atlanta Braves ($8,400)
Ian Anderson has seen a dip in strikeout rate thus far (24.5%), but his swinging-strike rate isn't far off from what it was last year when he posted an excellent 29.7% strikeout rate. Although walks are still an issue, if he can get those punchouts back up, Anderson could become a regular DFS asset.
His matchup against the Chicago Cubs should help tonight, as the Cubbies carry a 26.1% strikeout rate and 91 wRC+ against right-handed pitching going back to 2020. Chicago also has the slate's sixth-lowest implied total (3.81).
Unfortunately, they also own a solid 8.9% walk rate over that span, so Anderson will have to be on point to avoid those pesky free passes. Still, we'll need strikeout upside to keep up with the top options on the board, and Anderson could provide us that.
DJ LeMahieu, 2B, New York Yankees ($3,000)
Though it feels like I've rotated through most of the New York Yankees in this space as they've endured their slow start, this is truly a get-right spot if ever there was one.
Left-hander Bruce Zimmermann has shown little through 28.2 innings going back to last season, and righty sticks haven't had any trouble scoring runs on him: he's only managed a 5.77 xFIP and 13.6% strikeout rate in the split.
DJ LeMahieu is one of several Yankees who haven't lived up to expectations so far, but grabbing a low-salaried leadoff hitter for a team with a slate-high 5.61 implied total tends to work out more often than not.
LeMahieu's posted a respectable .343 xwOBA, so he's likely deserved better results than he's shown, and his strong track record over the past couple of seasons speaks for itself.
Yasmani Grandal, C, Chicago White Sox ($2,800)
It really doesn't matter what season you look at -- Urena has consistently performed poorly versus lefties. Over his career against them, he's put up a 5.48 xFIP with a mere 12.1% strikeout rate, and it's of little surprise that he also allows a far higher rate of dingers (1.45 per 9 innings).
Although Grandal's results aren't impressive, his Statcast metrics still look the part, and he's showing solid plate skills with a 17.5% strikeout rate and 17.5% walk rate. Expect that power to tick up, and this is a golden opportunity for him to cash in on a home run.
Wil Myers, OF, San Diego Padres ($2,700)
Kelly is off to a rough 2021 with a 4.94 SIERA and 13.7% strikeout rate over four starts, and he's already coughed up four home runs. Considering he's allowed a career 43.1% hard-hit rate and 42.1% ground-ball rate, we ought to expect more balls to land in the outfield seats -- particularly when the opposing team is San Diego.
Wil Myers has picked up right where he left off last year with a promising 13.5% barrel rate, and if that wasn't enough, he's already swiped four bags, further adding to his fantasy potential.
Brandon Belt, 1B, San Francisco Giants ($2,700)
On a deep hitting slate like this, less renowned offenses such as the San Francisco Giants and Baltimore Orioles may not get as much attention despite their juicy matchups, so be sure not to forget about them in large-field tournaments.
In the Giants' case, they're facing Chi Chi Gonzalez, who could very well be one of the worst hurlers on the board. Gonzales owns a career 5.66 SIERA, 13.8% strikeout rate, and 11.8% walk rate, and so far in 2021, he's right around those marks.
His strikeout ability is sorely lacking against left-handed batters, which gives Brandon Belt a fantastic chance to take advantage of a sky-high 19.4% barrel rate. Belt is also coming off a productive 2020 campaign in which he put up a .282 ISO, so his early signs of power may not be all smoke and mirrors.