MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 4/7/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+102): 4 Stars out of 5
The Cincinnati Reds start Luis Castillo, who has proven himself to be a very reliable starting pitcher over the last few seasons, which should give the Reds a decent pitching advantage in this matchup. Castillo made 44 starts over the last two seasons with a 3.35 ERA, 3.41 FIP, and 144 ERA+, and he made an all-star appearance in 2019.
The Pittsburgh Pirates start Chad Kuhl, who has been about a league-average pitcher throughout his career with an ERA of 4.35 and a 97 ERA+ (100 is league average). Last year, Kuhl had the worst FIP of his career at 5.48, so he may be trending slightly in the wrong direction.
The Reds are also projected to have a much better offense than the Pirates this season, and FanGraphs' projections have them putting up 4.96 runs compared to 4.29 for the Pirates. The Reds have the better offense in addition to getting the much better end of the pitching matchup. We give them a 67.12% chance to cover the 1.5-run spread, making this a 4-star bet.
Tampa Bay Rays -102: 1 Star out of 5
The Tampa Bay Rays are the defending American League champions but they are not getting much respect from the oddsmakers in this matchup.
The Rays start Ryan Yarbrough, who boasts a career ERA of 3.88 ERA and 109 ERA+. The Rays are also elite at managing their bullpen as they boast a 3.37 bullpen ERA from the start of last year, the third-highest in all of baseball during that span. The Boston Red Sox will be hard-pressed to score runs in this game.
Our model likes the Rays to win, giving them a 53% chance to do so and projecting a 5.17-4.67 victory in their favor. It will be important to monitor how the betting line moves before first pitch, but if the Rays stay at or close to plus odds, then this is an even stronger betting opportunity for Wednesday.
Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-102): 1 Star out of 5
The Minnesota Twins are projected to have a much better offense than the Detroit Tigers this season, as FanGraphs has them projected for 5.54 runs scored per game the rest of the way, compared to 4.76 for the Tigers.
The Twins also get the better end of this pitching matchup as Kenta Maeda faces off with Matt Boyd. Maeda finished a spectacular season last year with a 2.70 ERA and 3.00 FIP, which was good enough to get him second place in Cy Young voting.
Boyd is on the opposite end of the spectrum, as he had a 6.71 ERA and 69 ERA+ last season, making him a below-average starting pitcher by far. Even for his career, Boyd has an 89 ERA+, which is still well below the league average of 100.
Our model projects a 5.28-3.60 victory for Minnesota, which would be a 1.68 run difference. Getting Minnesota -1.5 is a good betting opportunity as long as the odds are close to even.